Related papers: Markov Kernels and the Conditional Extreme Value M…
The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…
Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…
We attempt to bring some modest unity to three subareas of heavy tail analysis and extreme value theory: limit laws for componentwise maxima of iid random variables;hidden regular variation and asymptotic independence;conditioned limit laws…
Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…
Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…
The EVA 2023 data competition consisted of four challenges, ranging from interval estimation for very high quantiles of univariate extremes conditional on covariates, point estimation of unconditional return levels under a custom loss…
We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…
Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…
Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…
A Markov tree is a probabilistic graphical model for a random vector indexed by the nodes of an undirected tree encoding conditional independence relations between variables. One possible limit distribution of partial maxima of samples from…
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…
Under general multivariate regular variation conditions, the extreme Value-at-Risk of a portfolio can be expressed as an integral of a known kernel with respect to a generally unknown spectral measure supported on the unit simplex. The…
We evaluate the dependence among the margins of a random vector with Multivariate Extreme Value distribution throughout the expected value of a range and relate this coefficient of dependence with the multivariate tail dependence. Its…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…
The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…
Modeling cyber risks has been an important but challenging task in the domain of cyber security. It is mainly because of the high dimensionality and heavy tails of risk patterns. Those obstacles have hindered the development of statistical…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…
Extremal quantile regression, i.e. quantile regression applied to the tails of the conditional distribution, counts with an increasing number of economic and financial applications such as value-at-risk, production frontiers, determinants…
In a wide variety of situations, anomalies in the behaviour of a complex system, whose health is monitored through the observation of a random vector X = (X1,. .. , X d) valued in R d , correspond to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme…