Related papers: Locally adaptive factor processes for multivariate…

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models by assuming a quasi-likelihood approach driven by a latent factor process. More specifically, given the latent process, we only specify the conditional mean and variance of the time…

Varying coefficient regression is a flexible technique for modeling data where the coefficients are functions of some effect-modifying parameter, often time or location in a certain domain. While there are a number of methods for variable…

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) on large datasets has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the underlying methods are generally limited to relatively simple settings where the data have specific forms of…

We consider estimation of high-dimensional long-run covariance matrices for time series with nonconstant means, a setting in which conventional estimators can be severely biased. To address this difficulty, we propose a difference-based…

In this article we propose a new adaptive numerical quadrature procedure which includes both local subdivision of the integration domain, as well as local variation of the number of quadrature points employed on each subinterval. In this…

Sparse and irregularly sampled multivariate time series are common in clinical, climate, financial and many other domains. Most recent approaches focus on classification, regression or forecasting tasks on such data. In forecasting, it is…

We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…

The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…

This work proposes an algorithmic framework to learn time-varying graphs from online data. The generality offered by the framework renders it model-independent, i.e., it can be theoretically analyzed in its abstract formulation and then…

We present an adaptive smoother for linear state-space models with unknown process and measurement noise covariances. The proposed method utilizes the variational Bayes technique to perform approximate inference. The resulting smoother is…

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

We introduce an extension of the time-dependent variational Monte Carlo (tVMC) method that adaptively controls the expressivity of the variational quantum state during the simulation of the dynamics. This adaptive tVMC (atVMC) approach is…

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation…

In this article, we consider flexible seasonal time series models which consist of a common trend function over periods and additive individual trend (seasonal effect) functions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the local linear…

Time-series forecasting models often encounter abrupt changes in a given period of time which generally occur due to unexpected or unknown events. Despite their scarce occurrences in the training set, abrupt changes incur loss that…

Nonparametric estimators for the mean and the covariance functions of functional data are proposed. The setup covers a wide range of practical situations. The random trajectories are, not necessarily differentiable, have unknown regularity,…

Nonstationary time series data exist in various scientific disciplines, including environmental science, biology, signal processing, econometrics, among others. Many Bayesian models have been developed to handle nonstationary time series.…

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…