Related papers: Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns,…
The study of the rapid intensification process of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is a current, yet lacking research topic in Mexico, where thermal and dynamic factors at the microscale and mesoscale fundamentally intervene. Due to the little…
In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm…