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Imagine a world where clinical trials need far fewer patients to achieve the same statistical power, thanks to the knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs). We present a novel framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of adverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Shota Arai , David Selby , Andrew Vargo , Sebastian Vollmer

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a pivotal tool in genetics, genomics, and epidemiology, leveraging genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes. Traditional MR methods, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Bitan Sarkar , Yuchao Jiang , Tian Ge , Yang Ni

We introduce the SoftBart approach from Bayesian ensemble learning to estimate the relationship between multipollutant mixtures and health on chronic exposures in epidemiology research. This approach offers several key advantages over…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-26 Yu-Chien Ning , Xin Zhou , Francine Laden , Molin Wang

Kernel logistic regression (KLR) is a widely used supervised learning method for binary and multi-class classification, which provides estimates of the conditional probabilities of class membership for the data points. Unlike other kernel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Antonio Consolo , Andrea Manno , Edoardo Amaldi

Recent advances in experimental methods have enabled researchers to collect data on thousands of analytes simultaneously. This has led to correlational studies that associated molecular measurements with diseases such as Alzheimer's, Liver,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-20 Divyagna Bavikadi , Ayushi Agarwal , Shashank Ganta , Yunro Chung , Lusheng Song , Ji Qiu , Paulo Shakarian

Dynamic prediction of time-to-event outcomes using longitudinal data is highly useful in clinical research and practice. A common strategy is the joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data. The shared random effect model has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Wenhao Li , Zhe Yin , Liang Li

As a Bayesian approach to fitting motorway traffic flow models remains rare in the literature, we explore empirically the sampling challenges this approach offers which have to do with the strong correlations and multi-modality of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-11 Jeremie Coullon , Yvo Pokern

Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Jiahao Tian , Hugh Chipman , Thomas Loughin

There is increasing interest in flexible parametric models for the analysis of time-to-event data, yet Bayesian approaches that offer incorporation of prior knowledge remain underused. A flexible Bayesian parametric model has recently been…

In Oncology, trials evaluating drug combinations are becoming more common. While combination therapies bring the potential for greater efficacy, they also create unique challenges for ensuring drug safety. In Phase-I dose escalation trials…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-23 Lukas A. Widmer , Andrew Bean , David Ohlssen , Sebastian Weber

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays a vital role in the scientific investigation and clinical management of multiple sclerosis. Analyses of binary multiple sclerosis lesion maps are typically "mass univariate" and conducted with standard…

Logistic regression is the most commonly used method for constructing predictive models for binary responses. One significant drawback to this approach, however, is that the asymptotes of the logistic response function are fixed at 0 and 1,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Anthony Almudevar , Jacob Almudevar

This work introduces the Burdened Bayesian Logistic Regression Model (BBLRM), an enhancement of the Bayesian Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) for dose-finding in phase I oncology trials. The BLRM determines the maximum tolerated dose (MTD)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Andrea Nizzardo , Luca Genetti , Marco Pergher

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which, given a censoring mechanism, a binary response can be observed only with respect to on outcome, usually called \textit{presence}. In this work we present a Bayesian approach to the…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-07 Fabio Divino , Natalia Golini , Giovanna Jona Lasinio , Antti Penttinen

Discussion of "Multivariate Bayesian Logistic Regression for Analysis of Clinical Trial Safety Issues" by W. DuMouchel [arXiv:1210.0385].

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-03 Don Berry

Discussion of "Multivariate Bayesian Logistic Regression for Analysis of Clinical Trial Safety Issues" by W. DuMouchel [arXiv:1210.0385].

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-03 Bradley W. McEvoy , Ram C. Tiwari

We describe the Bedside Patient Rescue (BPR) project, the goal of which is risk prediction of adverse events for non-ICU patients using ~200 variables (vitals, lab results, assessments, ...). There are several missing predictor values for…

In regression models for categorical data a linear model is typically related to the response variables via a transformation of probabilities called the link function. We introduce an approach based on two link functions for binary data…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-04 Monia Lupparelli , Alberto Roverato

Inference scaling helps LLMs solve complex reasoning problems through extended runtime computation. On top of long chain-of-thought (long-CoT) models, purely inference-time techniques such as best-of-N (BoN) sampling, majority voting, or…

We develop a fully Bayesian, logistic tracking algorithm with the purpose of providing classification results that are unbiased when applied uniformly to individuals with differing sensitive variable values. Here, we consider bias in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Martin B. Short , George O. Mohler