Related papers: A non-parametric ensemble transform method for Bay…

A new type of ensemble filter is proposed, which combines an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with the ideas of morphing and registration from image processing. This results in filters suitable for nonlinear problems whose solutions exhibit…

Smoothers are algorithms for Bayesian time series re-analysis. Most operational smoothers rely either on affine Kalman-type transformations or on sequential importance sampling. These strategies occupy opposite ends of a spectrum that…

We analyze the Ensemble and Polynomial Chaos Kalman filters applied to nonlinear stationary Bayesian inverse problems. In a sequential data assimilation setting such stationary problems arise in each step of either filter. We give a new…

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is…

Data assimilation combines dynamical models with observations to improve state estimates. Ensemble filters sequentially assimilate observations by updating a set of samples over time, alternating between a forecast and an analysis step.…

The efficient resolution of Bayesian inverse problems remains challenging due to the high computational cost of traditional sampling methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) with a…

We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman…

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling. State-space formulations provide a coherent probabilistic framework for such inference, yet…

We study the use of novel techniques arising in machine learning for inverse problems. Our approach replaces the complex forward model by a neural network, which is trained simultaneously in a one-shot sense when estimating the unknown…

This paper is concerned with the filtering problem in continuous-time. Three algorithmic solution approaches for this problem are reviewed: (i) the classical Kalman-Bucy filter which provides an exact solution for the linear Gaussian…

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric,…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a popular sequential data assimilation method that has been increasingly used for parameter estimation and forecast prediction in epidemiological studies. The observation function plays a critical role…

We develop an iterative framework for Bayesian inference problems where the posterior distribution may involve computationally intensive models, intractable gradients, significant posterior concentration, and pronounced non-Gaussianity. Our…

Bayesian linear inverse problems aim to recover an unknown signal from noisy observations, incorporating prior knowledge. This paper analyses a data-dependent method to choose the scale parameter of a Gaussian prior. The method we study…

We propose an affine-mapping based variational Ensemble Kalman filter for sequential Bayesian filtering problems with generic observation models. Specifically, the proposed method is formulated as to construct an affine mapping from the…

Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…

The ensemble Gaussian mixture filter (EnGMF) is a non-linear filter suited to data assimilation of highly non-Gaussian and non-linear models that has practical utility in the case of a small number of samples, and theoretical convergence to…

The Ensemble Kalman filter assumes the observations to be Gaussian random variables with a pre-specified mean and variance. In practice, observations may also have detection limits, for instance when a gauge has a minimum or maximum value.…