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Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

The filtering distribution is a time-evolving probability distribution on the state of a dynamical system, given noisy observations. We study the large-time asymptotics of this probability distribution for discrete-time, randomly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-11-25 D. Sanz-Alonso , A. M. Stuart

Uncertainty, characterised by randomness and stochasticity, is ubiquitous in applications of evolutionary game theory across various fields, including biology, economics and social sciences. The uncertainty may arise from various sources…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-04 Manh Hong Duong , The Anh Han

This work advances the theoretical foundations of reservoir computing (RC) by providing a unified treatment of fading memory and the echo state property (ESP) in both deterministic and stochastic settings. We investigate state-space…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Juan-Pablo Ortega , Florian Rossmannek

Many natural and artificial networks evolve in time. Nodes and connections appear and disappear at various timescales, and their dynamics has profound consequences for any processes in which they are involved. The first empirical analysis…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-05-21 Michele Starnini , Andrea Baronchelli , Alain Barrat , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser

Linear Response theory aims to predict how added forcing alters the statistical properties of an unforced system. These kinds of questions have been studied predominantly for autonomous dynamical systems, yet many systems in the physical,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Stefano Galatolo , Valerio Lucarini

Physical systems with many degrees of freedom can often be understood in terms of transitions between a small number of metastable states. For time-homogeneous systems with short-term memory these transitions are fully characterized by a…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-03 Nils B. Becker , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

A mass ejection model in a time-dependent random environment with both temporal and spatial correlations is introduced. When the environment has a finite correlation length, individual particle trajectories are found to diffuse at large…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-03-28 Giorgio Krstulovic , Rehab Bitane , Jeremie Bec

The exchange of information between an open quantum system and its environment allows us to discriminate among different kinds of dynamics, in particular detecting memory effects to characterize non-Markovianity. Here, we investigate the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-04-28 Andrea Smirne , Nina Megier , Bassano Vacchini

The discrete stochastic dynamics of a random walker in the presence of resetting and memory is analyzed. Resetting and memory effects may compete for certain parameter regime and lead to significant changes in the long time dynamics of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-11-15 Upendra Harbola

In this paper we examine the deviations from Gaussianity for two types of random variable converging to a normal distribution, namely sums of random variables generated by a deterministic discrete time map and a linearly damped variable…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-02-19 Jeroen Wouters

We describe a dynamic programming algorithm for computing the marginal distribution of discrete probabilistic programs. This algorithm takes a functional interpreter for an arbitrary probabilistic programming language and turns it into an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-09-12 Andreas Stuhlmüller , Noah D. Goodman

This paper discusses possible approaches to the escape rate in infinite lattices of weakly coupled maps with uniformly expanding repeller. It is proved that computed-via-volume rates of spatially periodic approximations grow linearly with…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2010-07-26 Jean-Baptiste Bardet , Bastien Fernandez

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to challenging problems of modern computing…

Cell Behavior · Quantitative Biology 2017-05-24 Alexandre de Castro , Carlos Frederico Fronza , Domingos Alves

A mechanism is proposed that allows to interpret the temporal evolution of a physical system as a result of the inability of an observer to record its whole state and a simple example is given. It is based on a review of the concepts of…

General Physics · Physics 2010-10-15 Alberto Bicego

Memory plays a vital role in the temporal evolution of interactions of complex systems. To address the impact of memory on the temporal pattern of networks, we propose a simple preferential connection model, in which nodes have a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-01-16 F. Rabbani , T. Khraisha , F. Abbasi , G. R. Jafari

Time-dependent data-generating distributions have proven to be difficult for gradient-based training of neural networks, as the greedy updates result in catastrophic forgetting of previously learned knowledge. Despite the progress in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Matthias De Lange , Gido van de Ven , Tinne Tuytelaars

Spatiotemporal dynamics models are fundamental for various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based spatiotemporal modeling approaches fall short when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Valerii Iakovlev , Harri Lähdesmäki
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