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Modeling the joint distribution of extreme weather events in multiple locations is a challenging task with important applications. In this study, we use max-stable models to study extreme daily precipitation events in Switzerland. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-29 Clément Chevalier , David Ginsbourger , Olivia Martius

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Carolin Forster , Marco Oesting

Stochastic computational models in the form of pure jump processes occur frequently in the description of chemical reactive processes, of ion channel dynamics, and of the spread of infections in populations. For spatially extended models,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Augustin Chevallier , Stefan Engblom

It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

We consider stationary configurations of points in Euclidean space which are marked by positive random variables called scores. The scores are allowed to depend on the relative positions of other points and outside sources of randomness.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Bojan Basrak , Ilya Molchanov , Hrvoje Planinić

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

We propose a new threshold selection method for the nonparametric estimation of the extremal index of stochastic processes. The so-called discrepancy method was proposed as a data-driven smoothing tool for estimation of a probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-07 Natalia M. Markovich , Igor V. Rodionov

In this paper, we focus on the problem of statistical dependence estimation using characteristic functions. We propose a statistical dependence measure, based on the maximum-norm of the difference between joint and product-marginal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Povilas Daniušis , Shubham Juneja , Lukas Kuzma , Virginijus Marcinkevičius

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , M. de Carvalho , B. D. Youngman

Existing methods for the estimation of stable distribution parameters, such as those based on sample quantiles, sample characteristic functions or maximum likelihood generally assume an independent sample. Little attention has been paid to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Adrian W. Barker

Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 John Einmahl , Anna Kiriliouk , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-14 Raphael Huser , Thomas Opitz , Emeric Thibaud

Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-27 Joshua Hewitt , Miranda J. Fix , Jennifer A. Hoeting , Daniel S. Cooley

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-10 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-13 Holger Drees , Laurens de Haan , Feridun Turkman

This paper investigates extreme value theory for processes obtained by applying transformations to stationary Gaussian processes, also called subordinated Gaussian processes. The main contributions are as follows. First, we refine the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Shuyang Bai , Marie-Christine Duker

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

We investigate a family of multiple-stable processes that may exhibit either long-range or short-range dependence, depending on the parameters. There are two parameters for the processes, the memory parameter $\beta\in(0,1)$ and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-10 Shuyang Bai , Yizao Wang
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