Related papers: Gambler's ruin probability - a general formula
For a family of multidimensional gambler models we provide formulas for the winning probabilities (in terms of parameters of the system) and for the distribution of game duration (in terms of eigenvalues of underlying one-dimensional…
We give a general method for constructing a deterministic strategy of Reality from a randomized strategy in game-theoretic probability. The construction can be seen as derandomization in game-theoretic probability.
We analyze the Gambler's problem, a simple reinforcement learning problem where the gambler has the chance to double or lose the bets until the target is reached. This is an early example introduced in the reinforcement learning textbook by…
We present new versions of the Parrondo's paradox by which a losing game can be turned into winning by including a mechanism that allows redistribution of the capital amongst an ensemble of players. This shows that, for this particular…
The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the…
This paper treats of a kind of a gambler's ruin problem, which seeks the probability that a random walker first hits the origin at a certain time. In addition to a usual random walk which hops either rightwards or leftwards, the present…
This article introduces the notion of arbitrage for a situation involving a collection of investments and a payoff matrix describing the return to an investor of each investment under each of a set of possible scenarios. We explain the…
We prove the explicit formula for the probability of a run of r successes in n trials.
The topic of the present paper is a generalized St.\ Petersburg game in which the distribution of the payoff $X$ is given by $P(X=sr^{k-1})=pq^{k-1}$, $k=1,2,\ldots$, where $p+q=1$, and $s,\,r>0$. As for main results, we first extend…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive…
We look at the Florida Lottery records of winners of prizes worth $600 or more. Some individuals claimed large numbers of prizes. Were they lucky, or up to something? We distinguish the "plausibly lucky" from the "implausibly lucky" by…
We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a…
The allocation of resources plays an important role in the completion of system objectives and tasks, especially in the presence of strategic adversaries. Optimal allocation strategies are becoming increasingly more complex, given that…
In this short note, we derive explicit formulas for the joint densities of the time to ruin and the number of claims until ruin in perturbed classical risk models, by constructing several auxiliary random processes.
In a classical chess round-robin tournament, each of $n$ players wins, draws, or loses a game against each of the other $n-1$ players. A win rewards a player with 1 points, a draw with 1/2 point, and a loss with 0 points. We are interested…
We analyse the ruin probabilities for a renewal insurance risk process with inter-arrival time distributions depending on the claims that arrived within a fixed (past) time window. This dependence could be explained through a regenerative…
Strategic decision-making in uncertain and adversarial environments is crucial for the security of modern systems and infrastructures. A salient feature of many optimal decision-making policies is a level of unpredictability, or randomness,…
A gambler walks into a hypothetical fair casino with a very real dollar bill, but by the time he leaves he's exchanged the dollar for a random amount of money. What is lost in the process? It may be that the gambler walks out at the end of…
We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of…