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We propose a new method, called MonteCarlo Posterior Fit, to boost the MonteCarlo sampling of likelihood (posterior) functions. The idea is to approximate the posterior function by an analytical multidimensional non-Gaussian fit. The many…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-19 Luca Amendola , Adrià Gómez-Valent

We propose a statistical model for narrowing line shapes in spectroscopy that are well approximated as linear combinations of Lorentzian or Voigt functions. We introduce a log-Gaussian Cox process to represent the peak locations thereby…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-01 Teemu Härkönen , Emma Hannula , Matthew T. Moores , Erik M. Vartiainen , Lassi Roininen

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-26 Dao Nguyen

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

We design a sequential Monte Carlo scheme for the dual purpose of Bayesian inference and model selection. We consider the application context of urban mobility, where several modalities of transport and different measurement devices can be…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-29 Luca Martino , Jesse Read , Victor Elvira , Francisco Louzada

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-04-28 David Tolpin , Frank Wood

CIPM published the Supplement I for GUM in 2008 as not only an alternative approach to estimate the uncertainty for a given calibration measurement but also as a proper uncertainty estimation one, whenever any of the conditions imposed in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-12-15 Thang H. L. , Nguyen D. D. , Dung D. N.

Many Bayesian statistical inference problems come down to computing a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) assignment of latent variables. Yet, standard methods for estimating the MAP assignment do not have a finite time guarantee that the algorithm…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Harsh Vardhan Dubey , Ji Ah Lee , Patrick Flaherty

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

Stack filters are a special case of non-linear filters. They have a good performance for filtering images with different types of noise while preserving edges and details. A stack filter decomposes an input image into stacks of binary…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2013-06-11 María Elena Buemi , Alejandro C. Frery , Heitor S. Ramos

We are working on the development of a method for optimizing wide-field X-ray telescope mirror prescriptions, including polynomial coefficients, mirror shell relative displacements, and (assuming 4 focal plane detectors) detector placement…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-19 Ronald F. Elsner , Stephen L. O'Dell , Brian D. Ramsey , Martin C. Weisskopf

Radiative transfer simulation is an important tool that allows us to generate synthetic images of various astrophysical objects. In the case of complex three-dimensional geometries, a Monte Carlo-based method that simulates photon packages…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-01-27 A. Krieger , S. Wolf

We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-05 Jan Kudlicka , Lawrence M. Murray , Thomas B. Schön , Fredrik Lindsten

We introduce an approach based on mirror descent and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to perform joint parameter inference and posterior estimation in latent variable models. This approach is based on minimisation of a functional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-07 Francesca R. Crucinio

In the field of sampling algorithms, MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods are widely used when direct sampling is not possible. However, multimodality of target distributions often leads to slow convergence and mixing. One common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Holden Lee , Zeyu Shen

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-03 Alexandros Beskos , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-24 Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez

The Monte Carlo event generators (MC) are used for the simulation of different processes in high energy physics. To achieve the best description of the data, the parameters of simulations are adjusted (tuned) with different methods. In this…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2018-01-23 Fabian Klimpel
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