Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo confidence intervals

We define the spectral gap of a Markov chain on a finite state space as the second-smallest singular value of the generator of the chain, generalizing the usual definition of spectral gap for reversible chains. We then define the relaxation…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

This paper proposes a new type of recurrence where we divide the Markov chains into intervals that start when the chain enters into a subset A, then sample another subset B far away from A and end when the chain again return to A. The…

We establish general conditions under which Markov chains produced by the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method will and will not be geometrically ergodic. We consider implementations with both position-independent and position-dependent…

We study the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimator for numerical integration for functions that do not need to be square integrable w.r.t. the invariant distribution. For chains with a spectral gap we show that the absolute mean error…

We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…

The current standard for confidence interval construction in the context of a possibly misspecified model is to use an interval based on the sandwich estimate of variance. These intervals provide asymptotically correct coverage, but…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$.…

Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method…

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

We introduce a unified operator-theoretic framework for analyzing mixing times of finite-state ergodic Markov chains that applies to both reversible and non-reversible dynamics. The central object in our analysis is the projected transition…

Pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from intractable distributions have gained recent interest and have been theoretically studied in considerable depth. Their main appeal is that they are exact, in the sense that…

Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Extant "fast" algorithms for Monte Carlo confidence sets are limited to univariate shift parameters for the one-sample and two-sample problems using the sample mean as the test statistic; moreover, some do not converge reliably and most do…

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

In this study, we address the central issue of statistical inference for Markov jump processes using discrete time observations. The primary problem at hand is to accurately estimate the infinitesimal generator of a Markov jump process, a…

This paper presents an improved result on the negative-binomial Monte Carlo technique analyzed in a previous paper for the estimation of an unknown probability p. Specifically, the confidence level associated to a relative interval…