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Scenario Analysis is a risk assessment tool that aims to evaluate the impact of a small number of distinct plausible future scenarios. In this paper, we provide an overview of important aspects of Scenario Analysis including when it is…

Verification and validation are major challenges for developing automated driving systems. A concept that gets more and more recognized for testing in automated driving is scenario-based testing. However, it introduces the problem of what…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Barbara Schütt , Marc Heinrich , Sonja Marahrens , J. Marius Zöllner , Eric Sax

Scenario generation is one of the essential steps in scenario-based testing and, therefore, a significant part of the verification and validation of driver assistance functions and autonomous driving systems. However, the term scenario…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Barbara Schütt , Joshua Ransiek , Thilo Braun , Eric Sax

Over recent decades, scenarios and scenario-based software/system engineering have been actively employed as essential tools to handle intricate problems, validate requirements, and support stakeholders' communication. However, despite the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Young-Min Baek , Esther Cho , Donghwan Shin , Doo-Hwan Bae

The concept of scenario and its many qualifications -- specifically logical and abstract scenarios -- have emerged as a foundational element in safeguarding automated driving systems. However, the original linguistic definitions of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Christian Neurohr , Lukas Westhofen , Tjark Koopmann , Eike Möhlmann , Eckard Böde , Axel Hahn

Scenario building is an established method to anticipate the future of emerging technologies. Its primary goal is to use narratives to map future trajectories of technology development and sociotechnical adoption. Following this process,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Julia Barnett , Kimon Kieslich , Jasmine Sinchai , Nicholas Diakopoulos

Variational inequalities are modelling tools used to capture a variety of decision-making problems arising in mathematical optimization, operations research, game theory. The scenario approach is a set of techniques developed to tackle…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Dario Paccagnan , Marco C. Campi

Scenario-based testing is becoming increasingly important in safety assurance for automated driving. However, comprehensive and sufficiently complete coverage of the scenario space requires significant effort and resources if using only…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Christoph Glasmacher , Michael Schuldes , Hendrik Weber , Nicolas Wagener , Lutz Eckstein

We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-09 Tobias Adrian , Domenico Giannone , Matteo Luciani , Mike West

In this paper we propose a framework for assessing the risk associated with deploying a machine learning model in a specified environment. For that we carry over the risk definition from decision theory to machine learning. We develop and…

Worldwide commitments to net zero greenhouse emissions have accelerated investments in renewable energy resources. The requirements for operating and planning power systems are becoming stringent because of the need to take into account the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-21 Aiusha Sangadiev , Alvaro Gonzalez-Castellanos , David Pozo

We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-27 Hannes Hoffmann , Thilo Meyer-Brandis , Gregor Svindland

Scenario decision making offers a flexible way of making decision in an uncertain environment while obtaining probabilistic guarantees on the risk of failure of the decision. The idea of this approach is to draw samples of the uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Guillaume O. Berger

Although simulation represents a major advance in the understanding of problems in complex systems, the field currently does not has standards in place that would guide the reporting of the data underlying each model, the process for model…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-12-26 Elias Carvalho , Luciano Andrade , Ricardo Chaim , Ricardo Pietrobon

In most of today's emergency scenarios information plays a crucial role. Therefore, information has to be constantly collected and shared among all rescue team members and this requires new innovative technologies. In this paper a…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-08-15 Mathieu Muench

Scenario-based testing is envisioned as a key approach for the safety assurance of autonomous vehicles. In scenario-based testing, relevant (driving) scenarios are the basis of tests. Many recent works focus on specification, variation,…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Till Schallau , Stefan Naujokat , Fiona Kullmann , Falk Howar

The development of new assessment methods for the performance of automated vehicles is essential to enable the deployment of automated driving technologies, due to the complex operational domain of automated vehicles. One contributing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 E. de Gelder , J. -P. Paardekooper , A. Khabbaz Saberi , H. Elrofai , O. Op den Camp. , S. Kraines , J. Ploeg , B. De Schutter

A typical scenario-based evaluation framework seeks to characterize a black-box system's safety performance (e.g., failure rate) through repeatedly sampling initialization configurations (scenario sampling) and executing a certain test…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Bowen Weng , Linda Capito , Umit Ozguner , Keith Redmill

Various stakeholders with different backgrounds are involved in Smart City projects. These stakeholders define the project goals, e.g., based on participative approaches, market research or innovation management processes. To realize these…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Carsten Wiecher , Philipp Tendyra , Carsten Wolff

Scenario-based methods for the assessment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) are widely supported by many players in the automotive field. Scenarios captured from real-world data can be used to define the scenarios for the assessment and to…

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