Related papers: Bayesian inference for nonlinear structural time s…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems is a fundamental yet challenging problem in many fields of science and engineering. Existing methods face significant obstacles: Gaussian-based filters struggle…
Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…
This paper deals with the state estimation of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems with an emphasis on the numerical solution to the Bayesian recursive relations. In particular, this paper builds upon the Lagrangian grid-based filter (GbF)…
In this paper, we propose a filtering algorithm for simultaneously estimating the mode, input and state of hidden mode switched linear stochastic systems with unknown inputs. Using a multiple-model approach with a bank of linear input and…
We seek to conduct statistical inference for a large collection of primary parameters, each with its own nuisance parameters. Our approach is partially Bayesian, in that we treat the primary parameters as fixed while we model the nuisance…
A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…
A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…
In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle…
This article proposes an efficient Bayesian inference for piecewise exponential hazard (PEH) models, which allow the effect of a covariate on the survival time to vary over time. The proposed inference methodology is based on a particle…
Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…
Multi-sensor state space models underpin fusion applications in networks of sensors. Estimation of latent parameters in these models has the potential to provide highly desirable capabilities such as network self-calibration. Conventional…
In this paper, a dual estimation methodology is developed for both time-varying parameters and states of a nonlinear stochastic system based on the Particle Filtering (PF) scheme. Our developed methodology is based on a concurrent…
We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…
We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian…
We review the introduction of likelihood functions and Fisher information in classical estimation theory, and we show how they can be defined in a very similar manner within quantum measurement theory. We show that the stochastic master…