Related papers: Marginal Likelihood Computation for Hidden Markov …

Theoretical guarantees are established for a standard estimator in a semi-parametric finite mixture model, where each component density is modeled as a product of univariate densities under a conditional independence assumption. The focus…

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

Synthetic likelihood (SL) is a strategy for parameter inference when the likelihood function is analytically or computationally intractable. In SL, the likelihood function of the data is replaced by a multivariate Gaussian density over…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been extensively used in the univariate and multivariate literature. However, there has been an increased interest in the analysis of matrix-variate data over the recent years. In this manuscript we…

In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging…

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

We propose a new scheme for selecting pool states for the embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This new scheme allows the embedded HMM method to be used for efficient sampling in state space models…

Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward…

Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The…

We propose a fast stochastic Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) method, for sampling from a smooth and strongly log-concave distribution. At the core of our proposed method is a variance reduction technique inspired by the recent advance in…

The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…

We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been widely adopted in the statistics community because of its ability to sample high-dimensional distributions much more efficiently than other Metropolis-based methods. Despite this, HMC often performs…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized…

There is an interest to replace computed tomography (CT) images with magnetic resonance (MR) images for a number of diagnostic and therapeutic workflows. In this article, predicting CT images from a number of magnetic resonance imaging…

We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…