Related papers: Ensemble filter techniques for intermittent data a…

For continuous-time linear stochastic dynamical systems driven by Wiener processes, we consider the problem of designing ensemble filters when the observation process is randomly time-sampled. We propose a continuous-discrete McKean--Vlasov…

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…

Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

This paper introduces a generalization of the empirical interpolation method (EIM) and the reduced basis method (RBM) in order to allow their combination with data mining and data assimilation. The purpose is to be able to derive sound…

Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…

Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…

Bayesian filtering is a general framework for recursively estimating the state of a dynamical system. Classical solutions such that Kalman filter and Particle filter are introduced in this report. Gaussian processes have been introduced as…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal profiles of subjects commonly follow a…

Implicit particle filters for data assimilation update the particles by first choosing probabilities and then looking for particle locations that assume them, guiding the particles one by one to the high probability domain. We provide a…

Bayesian filtering is a key tool in many problems that involve the online processing of data, including data assimilation, optimal control, nonlinear tracking and others. Unfortunately, the implementation of filters for nonlinear, possibly…

Data assimilation plays a pivotal role in understanding and predicting turbulent systems within geoscience and weather forecasting, where data assimilation is used to address three fundamental challenges, i.e., high-dimensionality,…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior…

This chapter provides various perspective on an important challenge in data assimilation: model error. While the overall goal is to understand the implication of model error of any type in data assimilation, we emphasize on the effect of…

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Integrated models are a popular tool for analyzing species of conservation concern. Species of conservation concern are often monitored by multiple entities that generate several datasets. Individually, these datasets may be insufficient…

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on…