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Predicting the evolution of a large system of units using its structure of interaction is a fundamental problem in complex system theory. And so is the problem of reconstructing the structure of interaction from temporal observations. Here,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-10 Charles Murphy , Vincent Thibeault , Antoine Allard , Patrick Desrosiers

We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-01-12 Ulrich Kirchner

Every observation may follow a distribution that is randomly selected in a class of distributions. It is called the distribution uncertainty. This is a fact acknowledged in some research fields such as financial risk measure. Thus, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 Lu Lin , Ping Dong , Yunquan Song , Lixing Zhu

This paper deals with the super-replication of non path-dependent European claims under additional convex constraints on the number of shares held in the portfolio. The corresponding super-replication price of a given claim has been widely…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-24 Jean-François Chassagneux , Romuald Elie , Idris Kharroubi

As operators acting on the undetermined final settlement of a derivative security, expectation is linear but price is non-linear. When the market of underlying securities is incomplete, non-linearity emerges from the bid-offer around the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-23 Paul McCloud

We extend the notions of conditioned and controlled invariant spaces to linear dynamical systems over the max-plus or tropical semiring. We establish a duality theorem relating both notions, which we use to construct dynamic observers.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-12-20 Michael Di Loreto , Stephane Gaubert , Ricardo D. Katz , Jean-Jacques Loiseau

We study the formation of derivative prices in equilibrium between risk-neutral agents with heterogeneous beliefs about the dynamics of the underlying. Under the condition that the derivative cannot be shorted, we prove the existence of a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-04 Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Marcel Nutz

We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability measures hidden behind a given set of…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-30 Jocelyne Bion-Nadal , Magali Kervarec

We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-26 Patrick Beißner

We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-19 Truc Le

We consider a continuous-time financial market that consists of securities available for dynamic trading, and securities only available for static trading. We work in a robust framework where a set of non-dominated models is given. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-22 Beatrice Acciaio , Martin Larsson

This paper develops a systematic parametric method for analyzing stochastic systems under volatility uncertainty within the $G$-expectation framework. Leveraging the dual representation of the $G$-expectation as a supremum over a family of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Guangqian Zhao

We consider a continuous-time financial market with no arbitrage and no transactions costs. In this setting, we introduce two types of perpetual contracts, one in which the payoff to the long side is a fixed function of the underlyers and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-08 Guillermo Angeris , Tarun Chitra , Alex Evans , Matthew Lorig

I introduce novel preference formulations which capture aversion to ambiguity about unknown and potentially time-varying volatility. I compare these preferences with Gilboa and Schmeidler's maxmin expected utility as well as variational…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-09-21 Peter G. Hansen

This paper deals with a situation when one is interested in the dependence structure of a multidimensional response variable in the presence of a multivariate covariate. It is assumed that the covariate affects only the marginal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-12 Marek Omelka , Šárka Hudecová , Natalie Neumeyer

A mixed type dual to a nondifferentiable variational problem involving higher order derivative is formulated and duality results are proved under generalized invexity conditions. Special cases are generated from our results.

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-06-07 I Husain , Rumana G. Mattoo

In this paper, we investigate risk minimization problem of derivatives based on non-tradable underlyings by means of dynamic g-expectations which are slight different from conditional g-expectations. In this framework, inspired by [1] and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-13 Tianxiao Wang

We present a stochastic local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures. The aim of the model is to be able to recover the prices of derivative claims both on futures contracts and on indices on futures strategies.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-03 Alberto Manzano , Emanuele Nastasi , Andrea Pallavicini , Carlos Vázquez

We consider the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and hedging prices of options under non-dominated model uncertainty and portfolio constrains in discrete time. We first show that no arbitrage holds if and only if there exists…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-30 Erhan Bayraktar , Zhou Zhou

Semi-supervised learning has emerged as an appealing strategy to train deep models with limited supervision. Most prior literature under this learning paradigm resorts to dual-based architectures, typically composed of a teacher-student…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Martin Van Waerebeke , Gregory Lodygensky , Jose Dolz