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This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2013-05-29 M. Marder

Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-15 Peter Cotton

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-30 Can Liu , Jia-Rong Xie , Han-Shuang Chen , Hai-Feng Zhang , Ming Tang

In spite of the extensive previous efforts on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading in complex networks, the problem of traffic-driven epidemic spreading on {\em correlated} networks has not been addressed. Interestingly, we find that the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-22 Han-Xin Yang , Ming Tang , Ying-Cheng Lai

In this paper, we study the control of the traffic-driven epidemic spreading by immunization strategy. We consider the random, degree-based and betweeness-based immunization strategies, respectively. It is found that the betweeness-based…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-14 Han-Xin Yang , Bing-Hong Wang

We present some ideas on how to extend a kinetic type model for crowd dynamics to account for an infectious disease spreading. We focus on a medium size crowd occupying a confined environment where the disease is easily spread. The kinetic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-05 Daewa Kim , Annalisa Quaini

Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-07-12 Leo Speidel , Konstantin Klemm , Víctor M. Eguíluz , Naoki Masuda

In this work we explore the effects of human mobility on the dispersion of a vector borne disease. We combine an already presented stochastic model for dengue with a simple representation of the daily motion of humans on a schematic city of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Daniel H Barmak , Claudio O Dorso , Marcelo Otero , Hernán G Solari

Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-29 Thien-Minh Le , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Daily variation in human mobility modulates the speed and severity of emerging outbreaks, yet most epidemiological studies assume static contact patterns. With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-09-17 Zhanwei Du , Spencer J Fox , Petter Holme , Jiming Liu , Alison P. Galvani , Lauren Ancel Meyers

Urban mobility needs alternative sustainable travel modes to keep our pandemic cities in motion. Ride-pooling, where a single vehicle is shared by more than one traveller, is not only appealing for mobility platforms and their travellers,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-09 Rafał Kucharski , Oded Cats , Julian Sienkiewicz

We study a three-species cyclic model whose organisms are vulnerable to contamination with an infectious disease which propagates person-to-person. We consider that individuals of one species perform an evolutionary self-preservation…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-05 J. Menezes

This paper is concerned with developing mean-field game models for the evolution of epidemics. Specifically, an agent's decision -- to be socially active in the midst of an epidemic -- is modeled as a mean-field game with health-related…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-23 S. Yagiz Olmez , Shubham Aggarwal , Jin Won Kim , Erik Miehling , Tamer Başar , Matthew West , Prashant G. Mehta

Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Peng-Bi Cui , Lei Gao , Wei Wang

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-18 Dawei Zhao , Lixiang Li , Haipeng Peng , Qun Luo , Yixian Yang

A model for epidemic spreading on rewiring networks is introduced and analyzed for the case of scale free steady state networks. It is found that contrary to what one would have naively expected, the rewiring process typically tends to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-05-29 Yonathan Schwarzkopf , Attila Rakos , David Mukamel

Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-14 Xiaolong Chen , Ruijie Wang , Ming Tang , Shimin Cai , H. Eugene Stanley , Lidia A. Braunstein

From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-01-29 Kyle B Gustafson , Basil S. Bayati , Philip A. Eckhoff

Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-18 J. Sanz , L. M. Floria , Y. Moreno

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Caitlin Ward , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt