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We study numerical integration over bounded regions in $\mathbb{R}^s, s\ge1$ with respect to some probability measure. We replace random sampling with quasi-Monte Carlo methods, where the underlying point set is derived from deterministic…
Consider a real-valued function that can only be observed with stochastic noise at a finite set of design points within a Euclidean space. We wish to determine whether there exists a convex function that goes through the true function…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…
A Monte-Carlo algorithm for discrete statistical models that combines the full power of the Belief Propagation algorithm with the advantages of a detailed-balanced heat bath approach is presented. A sub-tree inside the factor graph is first…
The goal of this article is to introduce the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method -- a Hamiltonian dynamics-inspired algorithm for sampling from a Gibbs density $\pi(x) \propto e^{-f(x)}$. We focus on the "idealized" case, where one can…
We present a Monte Carlo study of the two-component $\phi^4$ model on the simple cubic lattice in three dimensions. By suitable tuning of the coupling constant $\lambda$ we eliminate leading order corrections to scaling. High statistics…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…
Automatic cubatures approximate multidimensional integrals to user-specified error tolerances. For high dimensional problems, it makes sense to fix the sampling density but determine the sample size, $n$, automatically. Bayesian cubature…
Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We…
In this study, we give an extension of Montanaro's arXiv/archive:1504.06987 quantum Monte Carlo method, tailored for computing expected values of random variables that exhibit infinite variance. This addresses a challenge in analyzing…
We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…
I consider the problem of integrating a function $f$ over the $d$-dimensional unit cube. I describe a multilevel Monte Carlo method that estimates the integral with variance at most $\epsilon^{2}$ in $O(d+\ln(d)d_{t}\epsilon^{-2})$ time,…
We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…
Based on independent progressively Type-II censored samples from two-parameter Rayleigh distributions with the same location parameter but different scale parameters, the UMVUE and maximum likelihood estimator of $R=P(Y<X)$ are obtained.…
Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…
The paper is devoted to the numerical solutions of fractional PDEs based on its probabilistic interpretation, that is, we construct approximate solutions via certain Monte Carlo simulations. The main results represent the upper bound of…
${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…
The objective of Bayesian inference is often to infer, from data, a probability measure for a random variable that can be used as input for Monte Carlo simulation. When datasets for Bayesian inference are small, a principle challenge is…
We introduce inherent measures for effective quality control of brain segmentation based on a Bayesian fully convolutional neural network, using model uncertainty. Monte Carlo samples from the posterior distribution are efficiently…
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…