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Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the…
Suppose $\boldsymbol{y}$ is a real random variable, and one is given access to ``the code'' that generates it (for example, a randomized or quantum circuit whose output is $\boldsymbol{y}$). We give a quantum procedure that runs the code…
Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…
This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
We describe Monte Carlo methods for estimating lower envelopes of expectations of real random variables. We prove that the estimation bias is negative and that its absolute value shrinks with increasing sample size. We discuss fairly…
We consider a statistical test whose p-value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. We are interested in deciding whether the p-value for an observed data set lies above or below a given threshold such as 5%. We want to…
This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of…
We describe and analyze some Monte Carlo methods for manifolds in Euclidean space defined by equality and inequality constraints. First, we give an MCMC sampler for probability distributions defined by un-normalized densities on such…
Due to the complexity of order statistics, the finite sample behaviour of robust statistics is generally not analytically solvable. While the Monte Carlo method can provide approximate solutions, its convergence rate is typically very slow,…
We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…
Standard Bayesian credible-region theory for constructing an error region on the unique estimator of an unknown state in general quantum-state tomography to calculate its size and credibility relies on heavy Monte~Carlo sampling of the…
We study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in…
In the present paper we consider the initial data, external force, viscosity coefficients, and heat conductivity coefficient as random data for the compressible Navier--Stokes--Fourier system. The Monte Carlo method, which is frequently…
We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…
We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…
Recent advances in quasi-Monte Carlo integration have shown that for linearly scrambled digital net estimators, the convergence rate can be dramatically improved by taking the median rather than the mean of multiple independent replicates.…
We show that repulsive random variables can yield Monte Carlo methods with faster convergence rates than the typical $N^{-1/2}$, where $N$ is the number of integrand evaluations. More precisely, we propose stochastic numerical quadratures…
The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the most common technique used for uncertainty quantification, due to its simplicity and good statistical results. However, its computational cost is extremely high, and, in many cases, prohibitive.…
Monte Carlo approximations for random linear elliptic PDE constrained optimization problems are studied. We use empirical process theory to obtain best possible mean convergence rates $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ for optimal values and solutions,…