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Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Zayd Omar , David A. Stephens , Alexandra M. Schmidt , David L. Buckeridge

Using supervised machine learning approaches to recognize human activities from on-body wearable accelerometers generally requires a large amount of labelled data. When ground truth information is not available, too expensive, time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-30 Dorra Trabelsi , Samer Mohammed , Faicel Chamroukhi , Latifa Oukhellou , Yacine Amirat

With the influx of complex and detailed tracking data gathered from electronic tracking devices, the analysis of animal movement data has recently emerged as a cottage industry amongst biostatisticians. New approaches of ever greater…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-31 Toby A Patterson , Alison Parton , Roland Langrock , Paul G Blackwell , Len Thomas , Ruth King

In this paper, we explore deep learning techniques for individual identification of animals based on their skin patterns. Individual identification is crucial in biodiversity monitoring, since it enables analysis of decline or growth of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jens van Bijsterveld , Daniele Avitabile , Fons J. Verbeek , Rita Pucci

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

We present a Bayesian method for characterizing the mating system of populations reproducing through a mixture of self-fertilization and random outcrossing. Our method uses patterns of genetic variation across the genome as a basis for…

Animal pose estimation is an important but under-explored task due to the lack of labeled data. In this paper, we tackle the task of animal pose estimation with scarce annotations, where only a small set of labeled data and unlabeled images…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Chen Li , Gim Hee Lee

Understanding population composition is essential across ecological, evolutionary, conservation, and resource management contexts. Modern methods such as genetic stock identification (GSI) estimate the proportion of individuals from each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Yiran Wang , Martin Lysy , Audrey Béliveau

We consider the challenges that arise when fitting complex ecological models to 'large' data sets. In particular, we focus on random effect models which are commonly used to describe individual heterogeneity, often present in ecological…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-17 Ruth King , Blanca Sarzo , Víctor Elvira

Statistical agencies and other institutions collect data under the promise to protect the confidentiality of respondents. When releasing microdata samples, the risk that records can be identified must be assessed. To this aim, a widely…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-03 Cinzia Carota , Maurizio Filippone , Roberto Leombruni , Silvia Polettini

1. Temporal trends in species distributions are necessary for monitoring changes in biodiversity, which aids policymakers and conservationists in making informed decisions. Dynamic species distribution models are often fitted to ecological…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-15 Kwaku Peprah Adjei , Rob Cooke , Nick Isaac , Robert B. O'Hara

To understand how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations, we require models exhibiting a wide range of activity patterns while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-10 Alexandre René , André Longtin , Jakob H. Macke

The paper presents a machine learning approach to design digital interfaces that can dynamically adapt to different users and usage strategies. The algorithm uses Bayesian statistics to model users' browsing behavior, focusing on their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Eric Petit , Denis Chêne

Capture-recapture methods aim to estimate the size of a closed population on the basis of multiple incomplete enumerations of individuals. In many applications, the individual probability of being recorded is heterogeneous in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-08 James E. Johndrow , Kristian Lum , Daniel Manrique-Vallier

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-20 Ben Lambert , Aki Vehtari

Network inference has been attracting increasing attention in several fields, notably systems biology, control engineering and biomedicine. To develop a therapy, it is essential to understand the connectivity of biochemical units and the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-20 Junyang Jin , Ye Yuan , Jorge Goncalves

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-13 Christopher C. Strelioff , James P. Crutchfield , Alfred W. Hubler

We present a general approach to synthesizing evidence of time-to-event endpoints in meta-analyses of aggregate data (AD). Our work goes beyond most previous meta-analytic research by using reconstructed survival data as a source of…

This paper investigates system identification problems with Gaussian inputs and quantized observations under fixed thresholds. By reinterpreting the nonlinear effects induced by quantization as the product of the unknown parameter and an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Xingrui Liu , Ying Wang , Yanlong Zhao