Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Quantiles

We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate batch means variance estimators, which are computationally viable for high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error…

We study the asymptotic behavior of kernel estimators of asymptotic variances (or long-run variances) for a class of adaptive Markov chains. The convergence is studied both in $L^p$ and almost surely. The results also apply to Markov chains…

Markov chain Monte Calro methods (MCMC) are commonly used in Bayesian statistics. In the last twenty years, many results have been established for the calculation of the exact convergence rate of MCMC methods. We introduce another rate of…

We explore whether splitting and killing methods can improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates of rare event probabilities, and we make three contributions. First, we prove that "weighted ensemble" is the only…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

This article shows how coupled Markov chains that meet exactly after a random number of iterations can be used to generate unbiased estimators of the solutions of the Poisson equation. Through this connection, we re-derive known unbiased…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Effective sample size is a standard summary of Markov chain Monte Carlo output, but it is usually attached to scalar or Euclidean summaries chosen by the analyst. For manifold-valued samples this choice is not canonical: coordinate-wise…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide consistent of integrals as the number of iterations goes to infinity. MCMC estimators are generally biased after any fixed number of iterations. We propose to remove this bias by using…

We apply Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods to the stellar parameter estimation problem. This technique is useful when dealing with non-linear models and allows to derive realistic error bars on the inferred parameters. We give the first…

An introduction to the use of linchpin variables in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is provided. Before the widespread adoption of MCMC methods, conditional sampling using linchpin variables was essentially the only practical approach for…

While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error.…

We propose novel scale-invariant error estimators for the Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of mean and variance. For any linear transformation of the distribution of the quantity of interest, the computation cost across…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate samples that are asymptotically distributed from a target distribution of interest as the number of iterations goes to infinity. Various theoretical results provide upper bounds on the…

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…

The correspondence between the cross-entropy method and the zero-variance approximation to simulate a rare event problem in Markov chains is shown. This leads to a sufficient condition that the cross-entropy estimator is asymptotically…

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…