Related papers: A class of measure-valued Markov chains and Bayesi…

Nonlinear Markov chains with finite state space have been introduced in Kolokoltsov (2010). The characteristic property of these processes is that the transition probabilities do not only depend on the state, but also on the distribution of…

In population studies, it is standard to sample data via designs in which the population is divided into strata, with the different strata assigned different probabilities of inclusion. Although there have been some proposals for including…

A new approach is developed for evaluating the convergence rate for nonlinear Markov chains (MC) based on the recently developed spectral radius technique of markovian coupling for linear MC and the idea of small nonlinear perturbations of…

A new object of the probability theory, the two-sided chain of symbols (introduced in Ref. arXiv:physics/0306170) is used to study isotropy properties of binary multi-step Markov chains with the long-range correlations. Established…

The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…

The Dirichlet process (DP) is a fundamental mathematical tool for Bayesian nonparametric modeling, and is widely used in tasks such as density estimation, natural language processing, and time series modeling. Although MCMC inference…

The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of (undirected, or directed) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the…

We introduce block Markov chains (BMCs) indexed by an infinite rooted tree. It turns out that BMCs define a new class of tree-indexed Markovian processes. We clarify the structure of BMCs in connection with Markov chains (MCs) and Markov…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…

In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our…

We consider the asymptotics of the invariant measure for the process of the empirical spatial distribution of $N$ coupled Markov chains in the limit of a large number of chains. Each chain reflects the stochastic evolution of one particle.…

A new object of the probability theory, two-sided chain of events (symbols), is introduced. A theory of multi-steps Markov chains with long-range memory, proposed earlier in Phys. Rev. E 68, 06117 (2003), is developed and used to establish…

We consider the analysis of sets of categorical sequences consisting of piecewise homogeneous Markov segments. The sequences are assumed to be governed by a common underlying process with segments occurring in the same order for each…

We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges…

We present a nonparametric prior over reversible Markov chains. We use completely random measures, specifically gamma processes, to construct a countably infinite graph with weighted edges. By enforcing symmetry to make the edges undirected…