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We develop a natural Bayesian multiplicity-correcting prior distribution within the probabilistic forward stepwise representation of model space priors for regression problems. The proposed prior, obtained from making an analogy to the Holm…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Andrew Womack , Daniel Taylor-Rodriguez

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-19 Lane F. Burgette , David Puelz , P. Richard Hahn

When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Andrew A. Manderson , Robert J. B. Goudie

It can be important in Bayesian analyses of complex models to construct informative prior distributions which reflect knowledge external to the data at hand. Nevertheless, how much prior information an analyst can elicit from an expert will…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-10 Xueou Wang , David J. Nott , C. C. Drovandi , Kerrie Mengersen , Michael Evans

There are some real life issues that are exists in nature which has early failure. This type of problems can be modelled either by a complex distribution having more than one parameter or by finite mixture of some distribution. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-30 Brijesh P. Singh , Utpal Dhar Das , Sandeep Singh

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt

In Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection, prior distributions must be chosen carefully. For example, setting arbitrarily large prior scales for location parameters, which is common practice in estimation problems, can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-25 Víctor Peña , James O. Berger

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

In this article, the exponentiated discrete Lindley distribution is presented and studied. Some important distributional properties are discussed. Using the maximum likelihood method, estimation of the model parameters is investigated.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-27 M. El-Morshedy , M. S. Eliwa , H. Nagy

Bayesian inference for statistical models with a hierarchical structure is often characterized by specification of priors for parameters at different levels of the hierarchy. When higher level parameters are functions of the lower level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Ken B. Newman , Cristiano Villa , Ruth King

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

This paper develops some objective priors for certain parameters of the bivariate normal distribution. The parameters considered are the regression coefficient, the generalized variance, and the ratio of the conditional variance of one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Malay Ghosh , Upasana Santra , Dalho Kim

We study the identifiability of parameters and falsifiability of predictions under the process of model expansion in a Bayesian setting. Identifiability is represented by the closeness of the posterior to the prior distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Collin Cademartori

In this paper considering the transformation $X=\frac{Y}{1+Y}$, where $Y \sim\text{Lindley}(\theta)$, we propose the unit-Lindley distribution and investigate some of its mathematical properties. A important fact associated with this new…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 J. Mazucheli , A. F. B. Menezes , S. Chakraborty

We introduce a Bayesian model for inferring mixtures of subspaces of different dimensions. The key challenge in such a mixture model is specification of prior distributions over subspaces of different dimensions. We address this challenge…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-24 Brian St. Thomas , Lizhen Lin , Lek-Heng Lim , Sayan Mukherjee

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-02-25 Steen Hannestad , Thomas Tram

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-01-27 K. Triantafyllopoulos , P. J. Harrison

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-10 Zepu Zhang

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

This paper introduces a general and principled construction of model space priors with a focus on regression problems. The proposed formulation regards each model as a `local` null hypothesis whose alternatives are the set of models that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Andrew J Womack , Daniel Taylor-Rodriguez , Claudio Fuentes