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We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

Pimentel et al. (2020) recently analysed probing from an information-theoretic perspective. They argue that probing should be seen as approximating a mutual information. This led to the rather unintuitive conclusion that representations…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-10 Tiago Pimentel , Ryan Cotterell

Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael Gutmann

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

We study a marginal empirical likelihood approach in scenarios when the number of variables grows exponentially with the sample size. The marginal empirical likelihood ratios as functions of the parameters of interest are systematically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-07 Jinyuan Chang , Cheng Yong Tang , Yichao Wu

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Ye Wang , David Dunson

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Fengqiao Luo , Jeffrey Larson

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-18 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Tim Sullivan

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Leo L Duan , Alexander L Young , Akihiko Nishimura , David B Dunson

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We propose a practical Bayesian optimization method using Gaussian process regression, of which the marginal likelihood is maximized where the number of model selection steps is guided by a pre-defined threshold. Since Bayesian optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-19 Jungtaek Kim , Seungjin Choi

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Pierre Alquier

We distinguish two questions (i) how much information does the prior contain? and (ii) what is the effect of the prior? Several measures have been proposed for quantifying effective prior sample size, for example Clarke [1996] and Morita et…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-30 David E Jones , Robert N Trangucci , Yang Chen

In Bayesian meta-analysis, the specification of prior probabilities for the between-study heterogeneity is commonly required, and is of particular benefit in situations where only few studies are included. Among the considerations in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-02 Christian Röver , Sibylle Sturtz , Jona Lilienthal , Ralf Bender , Tim Friede

Incorporation of expert information in inference or decision settings is often important, especially in cases where data are unavailable, costly or unreliable. One approach is to elicit prior quantiles from an expert and then to fit these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-04 Nicholas M. Kiefer

In statistical practice, whether a Bayesian or frequentist approach is used in inference depends not only on the availability of prior information but also on the attitude taken toward partial prior information, with frequentists tending to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel