Related papers: Laws of rare events for deterministic and random d…
Conditional extreme value models have been introduced by Heffernan and Resnick (2007) to describe the asymptotic behavior of a random vector as one specific component becomes extreme. Obviously, this class of models is related to classical…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
A new version of a strong law of large numbers for a ``good'' pairwise independent sequence of random variables (r.v.'s) with a small part of ``bad'' dependent r.v.'s is proposed. The main goal is to relax the assumption on the existence of…
We study probabilities of various rare events for the limiting point process that appears at the random matrix hard edge. We also show a transition from hard edge to bulk behavior. Asymptotic events studied include a central limit theorem…
The statistical properties of an ecosystem composed of species interacting via pairwise, random interactions and deterministic, concentration limiting self-interaction are studied analytically with tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics…
Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
We analyse extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500…
We report measurements that show extreme events in the statistics of resonant radiation emitted from spatiotemporal light bullets. We trace the origin of these extreme events back to instabilities leading to steep gradients in the temporal…
The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…
We survey the connections between extreme-value theory and regular variation, in one and higher dimensions, from the algebraic point of view of our recent work on Popa groups.
We theoretically study divergent fluctuations of dynamical events at non-ergodic transitions. We first focus on the finding that a non-ergodic transition can be described as a saddle connection bifurcation of an order parameter for a time…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…
We provide formulas to compute the coefficients entering the affine scaling needed to get a non-degenerate function for the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of some kind of observable computed along the orbit of a randomly perturbed…
Many turbulent flows undergo drastic and abrupt configuration changes with huge impacts. As a paradigmatic example we study the multistability of jet dynamics in a barotropic beta plane model of atmosphere dynamics. It is considered as the…
We study random dynamical systems of certain continuous functions on the unit interval. We use bounded variation to provide sufficient conditions for unique ergodicity of these systems. Several classes of examples are provided.
For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…
We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…
An overview of rare events algorithms based on large deviation theory (LDT) is presented. It covers a range of numerical schemes to compute the large deviation minimizer in various setups, and discusses best practices, common pitfalls, and…