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Large and moderate deviation probabilities play an important role in many applied areas, such as insurance and risk analysis. This paper studies the exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics in non-logarithmic form for linear processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-07 Magda Peligrad , Hailin Sang , Yunda Zhong , Wei Biao Wu

We describe the cluster of large deviations events that arise when one such large deviations event occurs. We work in the framework of an infinite moving average process with a noise that has finite exponential moments.

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-11 Arijit Chakrabarty , Gennady Samorodnitsky

The Moderate Deviations Principle (MDP) is well-understood for sums of independent random variables, worse understood for stationary random sequences, and scantily understood for random fields. An upper bound for a new class of random…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Boris Tsirelson

Given an iid sequence of pairs of stochastic processes on the unit interval we construct a measure of independence for the components of the pairs. We define distance covariance and distance correlation based on approximations of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-30 Herold Dehling , Muneya Matsui , Thomas Mikosch , Gennady Samorodnitsky , Laleh Tafakori

In this paper we establish a moderate deviation principle of the hitting times for trajectories of sums of independent and identically distributed random variables. The main idea of proof is to convert the moderate deviations over a small…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-10 Yuheng He

The Moderate Deviations Principle (MDP) is well-understood for sums of independent random variables, worse understood for stationary random sequences, and scantily understood for random fields. Here it is established for some planary random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-25 Boris Tsirelson

Given a symmetric random walk in $Z^2$ with finite second moments, let $R_n$ be the range of the random walk up to time $n$. We study moderate deviations for $R_n -E R_n$ and $E R_n -R_n$. We also derive the corresponding laws of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Richard F. Bass , Xia Chen , Jay Rosen

We study the large deviations of sums of correlated random variables described by a matrix product ansatz, which generalizes the product structure of independent random variables to matrices whose non-commutativity is the source of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-02-18 Florian Angeletti , Hugo Touchette , Eric Bertin , Patrice Abry

Precise asymptotics for moderate deviation probabilities are established for open convex sets in both the finite- and infinite-dimensional settings. Our results are based on the existence of dominating points for these sets, a related…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Uwe Einmahl , James Kuelbs

We consider Markov chains which are polynomially mixing, in a weak sense expressed in terms of the space of functions on which the mixing speed is controlled. In this context, we prove polynomial large and moderate deviations inequalities.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-22 J Dedecker , Sébastien Gouëzel , F Merlevède

A moderate deviation principle for functionals, with at most quadratic growth, of moving average processes is established. The main assumptions on the moving average process are a Logarithmic Sobolev inequality for the driving random…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hacene Djellout , Arnaud Guillin , Liming Wu

The term \emph{moderate deviations} is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Jeonghwa Lee , Claudio Macci

We establish a Cram\'er-type moderate deviation result for self-normalized sums of weakly dependent random variables, where the moment requirement is much weaker than the non-self-normalized counterpart. The range of the moderate deviation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-15 Xiaohong Chen , Qi-Man Shao , Wei Biao Wu

In this paper, we prove the moderate deviations principle (MDP) for a general system of slow-fast dynamics. We provide a unified approach, based on weak convergence ideas and stochastic control arguments, that cover both the averaging and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-02 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We establish Cram\'er-type moderate deviation theorems for sums of locally dependent random variables and combinatorial central limit theorems. Under some mild exponential moment conditions, optimal error bounds and convergence ranges are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Song-Hao Liu , Zhuo-Song Zhang

We describe large deviations for normalized multiple iterated sums and integrals of the form $\bbS_N^{(\nu)}(t)=N^{-\nu}\sum_{0\leq k_1<...<k_\nu\leq Nt}\xi(k_1)\otimes\cdots\otimes\xi(k_\nu)$, $t\in[0,T]$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Yuri Kifer , Ofer Zeitouni

For noncorrelated random variables, we study a concentration property of the family of distributions of normalized sums formed by sequences of times of a given large length.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Sergey G. Bobkov

We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Attilio L. Stella , Fulvio Baldovin

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We obtain large deviations theorems for nonconventional sums with underlying process being a Markov process satisfying the Doeblin condition or a dynamical system such as subshift of finite type or hyperbolic or expanding transformation.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-21 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan