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This paper describes the analysis of quantitative characteristics of frequent sets and association rules in the posts of Twitter microblogs related to different event discussions. For the analysis, we used a theory of frequent sets,…

This thesis presents some geometric insights into three different types of two player prediction games -- namely general learning task, prediction with expert advice, and online convex optimization. These games differ in the nature of the…

The occurrence of unknown words in texts significantly hinders reading comprehension. To improve accessibility for specific target populations, computational modelling has been applied to identify complex words in texts and substitute them…

There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting…

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of random variables, based on the approach to probability via valuations. The theory is based on a type of lower-measurable sets, which are controlled limits of open sets,…

I provide a summary of the theoretical talks in Hard Probes 2012 together with some personal thoughts about the present and the future of the field.

We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical…

Inference and prediction are fundamental to the study of complex systems, where network data are often incomplete, inaccurate or obtained indirectly. In this paper, we review recent advances in network sampling and comparison, as well as in…

This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of…

This short note is devoted to the unraveling of the hidden interactivity of ordinary games which is an artefact of predictions of the behaviour of other players by the fixed player and describes deviations of their real behaviour from such…

This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The…

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…

An overview is given about the statistical physics of neural networks generating and analysing time series. Storage capacity, bit and sequence generation, prediction error, antipredictable sequences, interacting perceptrons and the…

A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence sets that contains a target parameter of an underlying stochastic process at any time step with high probability. This paper proposes a new approach to constructing CSs for means of…

In these notes we describe heuristics to predict computational-to-statistical gaps in certain statistical problems. These are regimes in which the underlying statistical problem is information-theoretically possible although no efficient…

Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form…

These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…

In a recent work we have shown how to construct an information algebra of coherent sets of gambles defined on general possibility spaces. Here we analyze the connection of such an algebra with the set algebra of subsets of the possibility…