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Causal models defined in terms of structural equations have proved to be quite a powerful way of representing knowledge regarding causality. However, a number of authors have given examples that seem to show that the Halpern-Pearl (HP)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-20 Joseph Y. Halpern

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

Causal probing aims to analyze foundation models by examining how intervening on their representation of various latent properties impacts their outputs. Recent works have cast doubt on the theoretical basis of several leading causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Marc Canby , Adam Davies , Chirag Rastogi , Julia Hockenmaier

We look more carefully at the modeling of causality using structural equations. It is clear that the structural equations can have a major impact on the conclusions we draw about causality. In particular, the choice of variables and their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-15 Joseph Y. Halpern , Christopher Hitchcock

Causal inference is a study of causal relationships between events and the statistical study of inferring these relationships through interventions and other statistical techniques. Causal reasoning is any line of work toward determining…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Patrick Chadbourne , Nasir Eisty

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

I argue that if a special science satisfies certain key assumptions that are familiar from physicalist accounts of the special sciences and from physics, then its causal regularities have an associated notion of entropy, and that this…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 Balazs Gyenis

Causal discovery procedures aim to deduce causal relationships among variables in a multivariate dataset. While various methods have been proposed for estimating a single causal model or a single equivalence class of models, less attention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Y. Samuel Wang , Mladen Kolar , Mathias Drton

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-25 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

Data based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Xiong Ying , Si-Yang Leng , Huan-Fei Ma , Qing Nie , Ying-Cheng Lai , Wei Lin

Counterfactual explanations have become a mainstay of the XAI field. This particularly intuitive statement allows the user to understand what small but necessary changes would have to be made to a given situation in order to change a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Victor Guyomard , Françoise Fessant , Thomas Guyet , Tassadit Bouadi , Alexandre Termier

A definition of causality introduced by Halpern and Pearl, which uses structural equations, is reviewed. A more refined definition is then considered, which takes into account issues of normality and typicality, which are well known to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-12-10 Joseph Y. Halpern

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Shruti Joshi , Aaron Mueller , David Klindt , Wieland Brendel , Patrik Reizinger , Dhanya Sridhar

Temporal causality defines what property causes some observed temporal behavior (the effect) in a given computation, based on a counterfactual analysis of similar computations. In this paper, we study its closure properties and the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Mishel Carelli , Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-14 Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Causal understanding is important in many disciplines of science and engineering, where we seek to understand how different factors in the system causally affect an experiment or situation and pave a pathway towards creating effective or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Miguel Arana-Catania , Weisi Guo