Related papers: ARMA Time-Series Modeling with Graphical Models

The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

We propose a nonparametric method for detecting nonlinear causal relationship within a set of multidimensional discrete time series, by using sparse additive models (SpAMs). We show that, when the input to the SpAM is a $\beta$-mixing time…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are very flexible for modeling network formation but pose difficult estimation challenges due to their intractable normalizing constant. Existing methods, such as MCMC-MLE, rely on sequential…

Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…

Two-dimensional (2-D) autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are commonly applied to describe real-world image data, usually assuming Gaussian or symmetric noise. However, real-world data often present non-Gaussian signals, with…

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In…

This paper aims to study data driven model selection criteria for a large class of time series, which includes ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH and many others processes. We tackled the challenging…

Stochastic modelling provides an indispensable tool for understanding how random events at the molecular level influence cellular functions. In practice, the common challenge is to calibrate a large number of model parameters against the…

Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…

Technological developments and open data policies have made large, global environmental datasets accessible to everyone. For analysing such datasets, including spatiotemporal correlations using traditional models based on Gaussian processes…

In this work, we address time-series forecasting as a computer vision task. We capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image. This approach results in predicting distributions as opposed to pointwise…

This is a survey of some recent results on the rational circulant covariance extension problem: Given a partial sequence $(c_0,c_1,\dots,c_n)$ of covariance lags $c_k=\mathbb{E}\{y(t+k)\overline{y(t)}\}$ emanating from a stationary periodic…

Generalising the idea of the classical EM algorithm that is widely used for computing maximum likelihood estimates, we propose an EM-Control (EM-C) algorithm for solving multi-period finite time horizon stochastic control problems. The new…

Genetic algorithms have played an important role in engineering optimization. Traditional GAs treat each gene separately. However, biophysical studies of gene regulatory networks revealed direct associations between different genes. It…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) provide a way to blend parametric and non-parametric (function approximation) techniques together, making them flexible tools suitable for many modeling problems. For instance, GAMs can be used to…

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…

Recent works leveraging Graph Neural Networks to approach graph matching tasks have shown promising results. Recent progress in learning discrete distributions poses new opportunities for learning graph matching models. In this work, we…

Generating large-scale samples of stationary random fields is of great importance in the fields such as geomaterial modeling and uncertainty quantification. Traditional methodologies based on covariance matrix decomposition have the…