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It is natural for probabilistic programs to use conditionals to express alternative substructures in models, and loops (recursion) to express repeated substructures in models. Thus, probabilistic programs with conditionals and recursion…
Traditional parametric econometric models often rely on rigid functional forms, while nonparametric techniques, despite their flexibility, frequently lack interpretability. This paper proposes a parsimonious alternative by modeling the…
Decision trees are one of the most fundamental computational models for computing Boolean functions $f : \{0, 1\}^n \mapsto \{0, 1\}$. It is well-known that the depth and size of decision trees are closely related to time and number of…
We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that…
Learning the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of an outcome variable conditional on a set of features remains challenging, especially in high-dimensional settings. Conditional transformation models provide a semi-parametric approach…
We propose novel Bayesian Dynamic Clustering Factor Models (BDCFM) for the analysis of multivariate longitudinal data. BDCFM combines factor models with hidden Markov models to concomitantly perform dimension reduction, clustering, and…
Chain reduction enables reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (BDDs) and zero-suppressed binary decision diagrams (ZDDs) to each take advantage of the others' ability to symbolically represent Boolean functions in compact form. For any…
Conditional independence and Markov properties are powerful tools allowing expression of multidimensional probability distributions by means of low-dimensional ones. As multidimensional possibilistic models have been studied for several…
Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…
Safety-critical infrastructures must operate in a safe and reliable way. Fault tree analysis is a widespread method used for risk assessment of these systems: fault trees (FTs) are required by, e.g., the Federal Aviation Administration and…
In reliability engineering, we need to understand system dependencies, cause-effect relations, identify critical components, and analyze how they trigger failures. Three prominent graph models commonly used for these purposes are fault…
Belief updating schemes in artificial intelligence may be viewed as three dimensional languages, consisting of a syntax (e.g. probabilities or certainty factors), a calculus (e.g. Bayesian or CF combination rules), and a semantics (i.e.…
Probabilistic databases play a crucial role in the management and understanding of uncertain data. However, incorporating probabilities into the semantics of incomplete databases has posed many challenges, forcing systems to sacrifice…
Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…
We present a probabilistic model for constraint-based grammars and a method for estimating the parameters of such models from incomplete, i.e., unparsed data. Whereas methods exist to estimate the parameters of probabilistic context-free…
Decision Trees are some of the most popular machine learning models today due to their out-of-the-box performance and interpretability. Often, Decision Trees models are constructed greedily in a top-down fashion via heuristic search…
We determine the probability, structure dependent, that the block Wiedemann algorithm correctly computes leading invariant factors. This leads to a tight lower bound for the probability, structure independent. We show, using block size…
Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions. Recently proposed Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) promise a more unified approach by amortising causal discovery and inference in a…
We present a theory for slicing probabilistic imperative programs -- containing random assignments, and ``observe'' statements (for conditioning) -- represented as probabilistic control-flow graphs (pCFGs) whose nodes modify probability…
We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…