Related papers: A new approach to unbiased estimation for SDE's
We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…
This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…
We study a linear high-dimensional regression model in a semi-supervised setting, where for many observations only the vector of covariates $X$ is given with no response $Y$. We do not make any sparsity assumptions on the vector of…
Fine stratification survey is useful in many applications as its point estimator is unbiased, but the variance estimator under the design cannot be easily obtained, particularly when the sample size per stratum is as small as one unit. One…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or diffusions are continuous-valued continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in the applied and mathematical sciences. Simulating paths from these processes is usually an intractable problem,…
This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…
Models incorporating uncertain inputs, such as random forces or material parameters, have been of increasing interest in PDE-constrained optimization. In this paper, we focus on the efficient numerical minimization of a convex and smooth…
We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimation and constructing confidence intervals for low-dimensional components in a high-dimensional model. The proposed estimator, called Constrained Lasso (CLasso) estimator, is obtained by…
The multi-level Monte Carlo method proposed by M. Giles (2008) approximates the expectation of some functionals applied to a stochastic process with optimal order of convergence for the mean-square error. In this paper, a modified…
A new method for estimating structural equation models (SEM) is proposed and evaluated. In contrast to most other methods, it is based directly on the data, not on the covariance matrix of the data. The new approach is flexible enough to…
We propose an algorithm for approximating the solution of a strongly oscillating SDE, that is, a system in which some ergodic state variables evolve quickly with respect to the other variables. The algorithm profits from homogenization…
A novel probabilistic numerical method for quantifying the uncertainty induced by the time integration of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is introduced. Departing from the classical strategy to randomize ODE solvers by adding a…
Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…
We develop and analyze a class of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators for multivariate jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity and jump size. A change of measure argument is used to extend existing…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
In this article we present and analyse new multilevel adaptations of stochastic approximation algorithms for the computation of a zero of a function $f\colon D \to \mathbb R^d$ defined on a convex domain $D\subset \mathbb R^d$, which is…
Penalized regression has become a standard tool for model building across a wide range of application domains. Common practice is to tune the amount of penalization to tradeoff bias and variance or to optimize some other measure of…
In this paper, we consider static parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state-space models. Our goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the gradient of the log-likelihood (score function), which is an estimate that is…