Related papers: Spreadsheets and Long Term Corporate Survival
Share valuations are known to adjust to new information entering the market, such as regulatory disclosures. We study whether the language of such news items can improve short-term and especially long-term (24 months) forecasts of stock…
In larger accounting firms, specialist modellers typically sit in separate teams. This paper will look at the advantages of embedding a specialist modeller within a Corporate Finance Team.
For long term investments, model portfolios are defined at the level of indexes, a setup known as Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). The possible outcomes at a scale of a few decades can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a…
We show that the use of large language models (LLMs) is prevalent among crowd workers, and that targeted mitigation strategies can significantly reduce, but not eliminate, LLM use. On a text summarization task where workers were not…
In statistics, it is important to have realistic data sets available for a particular context to allow an appropriate and objective method comparison. For many use cases, benchmark data sets for method comparison are already available…
The hard coding of input data or constants into spreadsheet formulas is widely recognised as poor spreadsheet model design. However, the importance of avoiding such practice appears to be underestimated perhaps in light of the lack of…
Nowadays, software analytics tools using machine learning (ML) models to, for example, predict the risk of a code change are well established. However, as the goals of a project shift over time, and developers and their habits change, the…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on…
This paper studies uncertainty set estimation for unknown linear systems. Uncertainty sets are crucial for the quality of robust control since they directly influence the conservativeness of the control design. Departing from the confidence…
Hazard ratios are ubiquitously used in time to event analysis to quantify treatment effects. Although hazard ratios are invaluable for hypothesis testing, other measures of association, both relative and absolute, may be used to fully…
According to recent results, convergence in a prespecified or prescribed finite time can be achieved under extreme model uncertainty if control is applied continuously over time. This paper shows that this extreme amount of uncertainty…
Errors in spreadsheet applications and models are alarmingly common (some authorities, with justification cite spreadsheets containing errors as the norm rather than the exception). Faced with this body of evidence, the auditor can be faced…
Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched disordered, $d$-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with the distance as $1/r^{d+\sigma}$. We study the dynamical behavior of the…
Organizations interact with the environment and with other organizations, and these interactions constitute an important way of learning and evolution. To overcome the problems that they face during their existence, organizations must…
This paper presents the arguments and supporting business metrics for Enterprise Spreadsheet Management to be seen as a necessary good. These arguments are divided into a summary of external business drivers that make it necessary and the…
Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different…
We consider a stochastic game-theoretic model of an investment market in continuous time with short-lived assets and study strategies, called survival, which guarantee that the relative wealth of an investor who uses such a strategy remains…
Context: Large embedded systems in vehicles tend to grow in size and complexity, which causes challenges when maintaining these systems. Objective: We explore how developers perceive the relation between maintainability effort and various…
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the largest targeted business support program in the United States, yet its firm-level effects remain contested. I link administrative PPP and SBA 7(a) records to a near-universe panel of U.S.…