Related papers: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Pro…
Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…
Continuous practices that rely on automation in the software development workflow have been widely adopted by industry for over a decade. Despite this widespread use, software development remains a primarily human-driven activity that is…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
In this paper we extend the work by Ryuzo Sato devoted to the development of economic growth models within the framework of the Lie group theory. We propose a new growth model based on the assumption of logistic growth in factors. It is…
Can artificial agents benefit from human conventions? Human societies manage to successfully self-organize and resolve the tragedy of the commons in common-pool resources, in spite of the bleak prediction of non-cooperative game theory. On…
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant…
Common narratives about automation often pit new technologies against workers. The introduction of advanced machine tools, industrial robots, and AI have all been met with concern that technological progress will mean fewer jobs. However,…
Can one estimate the number of remaining faults in a software system? A credible estimation technique would be immensely useful to project managers as well as customers. It would also be of theoretical interest, as a general law of software…
The problem of detecting anomalies in multiple processes is considered. We consider a composite hypothesis case, in which the measurements drawn when observing a process follow a common distribution with an unknown parameter (vector), whose…
Fluctuation theorems, which have been developed over the past 15 years, have resulted in fundamental breakthroughs in our understanding of how irreversibility emerges from reversible dynamics, and have provided new statistical mechanical…
Language models have seen enormous progress on advanced benchmarks in recent years, but much of this progress has only been possible by using more costly models. Benchmarks may therefore present a warped picture of progress in practical…
Within the framework of evidence theory, the confidence functions of different information can be combined into a combined confidence function to solve uncertain problems. The Dempster combination rule is a classic method of fusing…
Log and square root transformations of target variable are routinely used in forecasting models to predict future sales. These transformations often lead to better performing models. However, they also introduce a systematic negative bias…
We show that G\"odel's negative results concerning arithmetic, which date back to the 1930s, and the ancient "sand pile" paradox (known also as "sorites paradox") pose the questions of the use of fuzzy sets and of the effect of a measuring…
Statistical systems are conceived from the standpoint of statistical mechanics, as made of a (generally large) number of identical units and exhibiting a (generally large) number of different configurations (microstates), among which only…
Any industrial system goes along with objectives to be met (e.g. economic performance), disturbances to handle (e.g. market fluctuations, catalyst decay, unexpected variations in uncontrolled flow rates and compositions,...), and…
A detailed empirical analysis of the productivity of non financial firms across several countries and years shows that productivity follows a non-Gaussian distribution with power law tails. We demonstrate that these empirical findings can…
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium…
A common approach in forecasting problems is to estimate a least-squares regression (or other statistical learning models) from past data, which is then applied to predict future outcomes. An underlying assumption is that the same…
The past few centuries have witnessed a dramatic growth in scientific and technological knowledge. However, the nature of that growth - whether exponential or otherwise - remains controversial, perhaps partly due to the lack of quantitative…