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An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model…
Recent paradigms in Random Projection Layer (RPL)-based continual representation learning have demonstrated superior performance when building upon a pre-trained model (PTM). These methods insert a randomly initialized RPL after a PTM to…
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e.,…
Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close…
State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of observations related to the state is…
State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…
We present the particle stochastic approximation EM (PSAEM) algorithm for learning of dynamical systems. The method builds on the EM algorithm, an iterative procedure for maximum likelihood inference in latent variable models. By combining…
The development of robust generative models for highly varied non-stationary time series data is a complex yet important problem. Traditional models for time series data prediction, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are inefficient and…
The state-space model and the Kalman filter provide us with unified and computationaly efficient procedure for computing the log-likelihood of the diverse type of time series models. This paper presents an algorithm for computing the…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
The problem of system identification for the Kalman filter, relying on the expectation-maximization (EM) procedure to learn the underlying parameters of a dynamical system, has largely been studied assuming that observations are sampled at…
This paper presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic-programming principle, allowing for nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and degeneracy in the observation and/or state-transition equations. The resulting Bellman…
This paper presents the Poisson-randomized gamma dynamical system (PRGDS), a model for sequentially observed count tensors that encodes a strong inductive bias toward sparsity and burstiness. The PRGDS is based on a new motif in Bayesian…
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may…
Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional…
The application of neural networks in modeling dynamic systems has become prominent due to their ability to estimate complex nonlinear functions. Despite their effectiveness, neural networks face challenges in long-term predictions, where…
The well-known Kalman filters model dynamical systems by relying on state-space representations with the next state updated, and its uncertainty controlled, by fresh information associated with newly observed system outputs. This paper…
State Space Models (SSMs) and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are foundational frameworks for modeling sequential data with latent variables and are widely used in signal processing, control theory, and machine learning. Despite their shared…
This paper presents a data-driven model for Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) stochastic systems by sampling from the conditional probability distribution of future outputs given past input-outputs and future inputs. It operates in a fully…
We propose a framework for modeling and estimating the state of controlled dynamical systems, where an agent can affect the system through actions and receives partial observations. Based on this framework, we propose the Predictive State…