Related papers: Three predictions on July 2012 Federal Elections i…
The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers.…
Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in…
The availability of electoral data in electronic format allowed to physicist and mathematicians their own analysis. Beyond theoretical models for electoral processes, new regularities had been found in the data analysis of many countries…
The distribution of votes of one of the corporate parties in Mexico during elections of 2000, 2003 and 2006 is analyzed. After proper normalization and unfolding the agreement of the votes distributions with those of daisy models of several…
Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential…
This paper proposed a methodology to forecast electoral outcomes using the result of the combination of a fundamental model and a model-based aggregation of polls. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical structure for the fundamental model that…
In this paper we present a social network and forensic analysis of the vote counts of Spanish national elections that took place in December 2015 and their sequel in June 2016. Vote counts are extracted at the level of municipalities,…
Vote processes are the results of several complex interactions which are hard to separate in order to understand its role in the final result. The revocatory exercise performed in Mexico in 2022 allows an approximation to the Mexican…
Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make…
In the United States electoral system, a candidate is elected indirectly by winning a majority of electoral votes cast by individual states, the election usually being decided by the votes cast by a small number of "swing states" where the…
The proportional elections held in Brazil in 1998 and 2002 display identical statistical signatures. In particular, the distribution of votes among candidates includes a power-law regimen. We suggest that the rationale behind this robust…
We hypothesize that if election results are manipulated or forged, then, due to the well-known human attraction to round numbers, the frequency of reported round percentages can be increased. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed raw data…
Election results are determined by numerous social factors that affect the formation of opinion of the voters, including the network of interactions between them and the dynamics of opinion influence. In this work we study the result of…
The analysis of Tables of particle properties shows that the probability distribution of the results of physical measurements is far from the conventional Gaussian $\rho(\xi)=exp(-\xi^2/2) $, but is more likely to follow the simple…
This study utilizes neural networks to evaluate the 2024 judicial reform in Mexico, a proposal designed to overhaul the judicial system by increasing transparency, judicial autonomy, and introducing the popular election of judges. The…
In the spirit of the emergent field of econophysics, a goodness-of-fit test for the Power-Law distribution, based on the Empirical Distribution Function (EDF) is presented, and related problems are discussed. An analysis of the tail…
The challenge of understanding the collective behaviors of social systems can benefit from methods and concepts from physics [1-6], not because humans are similar to electrons, but because certain large-scale behaviors can be understood…
Many democratic societies use district-based elections, where the region under consideration is geographically divided into districts and a representative is chosen for each district based on the preferences of the electors who reside…
Democracies employ elections at various scales to select officials at the corresponding levels of administration. The geographical distribution of political opinion, the policy issues delegated to each level, and the multilevel interactions…
Here we present \texttt{electoral\_sim}, an open-source Python framework for simulating and comparing electoral systems across diverse voter preference distributions. The framework represents voters and candidates as points in a…