Related papers: Moment convergence of $Z$-estimators and $Z$-proce…
We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…
Changepoint analysis deals with unsupervised detection and/or estimation of time-points in time-series data, when the distribution generating the data changes. In this article, we consider \emph{offline} changepoint detection in the context…
Shrinkage of large particles, either through depolymerisation (i.e. progressive shortening) or through fragmentation (breakage into smaller pieces) may be modelled by discrete equations, of Becker-D\''oring type, or by continuous ones. In…
When the number of subjects, $n$, is large, paired comparisons are often sparse. Here, we study statistical inference in a class of paired comparison models parameterized by a set of merit parameters, under an Erd\"{o}s--R\'{e}nyi…
This article concerns the estimation of hitting time statistics for potentially non-stationary processes. The main focus is exceedance times of environmental processes. To this end we consider an empirical estimator based on ergodic theory…
Moment closure methods are widely used to analyze mathematical models. They are specifically geared toward derivation of approximations of moments of stochastic models, and of similar quantities in other models. The methods possess several…
As a new method for detecting change-points in high-resolution time series, we apply Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the distributions of ordinal patterns in different parts of a time series. The main advantage of this approach is its…
For the multivariate COGARCH process, we obtain explicit expressions for the second-order structure of the "squared returns" process observed on an equidistant grid. Based on this, we present a generalized method of moments estimator for…
Inference in models where the parameter is defined by moment inequalities is of interest in many areas of economics. This paper develops a new method for improving the performance of generalized moment selection (GMS) testing procedures in…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
We introduce and develop moment propagation for approximate Bayesian inference. This method can be viewed as a variance correction for mean field variational Bayes which tends to underestimate posterior variances. Focusing on the case where…
Let the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ driven by a fractional Brownian motion $B^{H }$, described by $dX_t = -\theta X_t dt + \sigma dB_t^{H }$ be observed at discrete time instants $t_k=kh$, $k=0, 1, 2, \cdots, 2n+2 $. We…
Stochastic filtering refers to estimating the probability distribution of the latent stochastic process conditioned on the observed measurements in time. In this paper, we introduce a new class of convergent filters that represent the…
This paper presents in detail the originally developed Quadratic Point Estimate Method (QPEM), aimed at efficiently and accurately computing the first four output moments of probabilistic distributions, using 2n^2+1 sample (or sigma)…
We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…
This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose the time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded…
We conjecture the full asymptotic expansion of a product of Riemann zeta functions, evaluated at the non-trivial zeros of the zeta function, with shifts added in each argument. By taking derivatives with respect to these shifts, we form a…
We obtain for the Kempner series (i.e. harmonic series where certain digits are excluded from all denominators, for example the digit 9 in base 10) new representations as geometrically convergent series. The coefficients for these…
Guided diffusion sampling relies on approximating often intractable likelihood scores, which introduces significant noise into the sampling dynamics. We propose using adaptive moment estimation to stabilize these noisy likelihood scores…
In \cite{CaZh:09}, we introduced and analyzed an improved Zienkiewicz-Zhu (ZZ) estimator for the conforming linear finite element approximation to elliptic interface problems. The estimator is based on the piecewise "constant" flux recovery…