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This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

In this paper we investigate the geometry of a discrete Bayesian network whose graph is a tree all of whose variables are binary and the only observed variables are those labeling its leaves. We provide the full geometric description of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-20 Piotr Zwiernik , Jim Q. Smith

In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Konrad Menzel

In causal models, a given mechanism is assumed to be invariant to changes of other mechanisms. While this principle has been utilized for inference in settings where the causal variables are observed, theoretical insights when the variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-07 Simon Bing , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Fabio Corradi , Monica Musio

A variety of fairness constraints have been proposed in the literature to mitigate group-level statistical bias. Their impacts have been largely evaluated for different groups of populations corresponding to a set of sensitive attributes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Jialu Wang , Xin Eric Wang , Yang Liu

Inferring the causal direction and causal effect between two discrete random variables X and Y from a finite sample is often a crucial problem and a challenging task. However, if we have access to observational and interventional data, it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Peter Gmeiner

Unmeasured confounding is a major challenge for identifying causal relationships from non-experimental data. Here, we propose a method that can accommodate unmeasured discrete confounding. Extending recent identifiability results in deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Patrick Burauel , Frederick Eberhardt , Michel Besserve

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anish Dhir , Samuel Power , Mark van der Wilk

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei

Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Severi Rissanen , Pekka Marttinen

Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Multilevel or hierarchical data structures can occur in many areas of research, including economics, psychology, sociology, agriculture, medicine, and public health. Over the last 25 years, there has been increasing interest in developing…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Bernet S. Kato , Carel F. W. Peeters

Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Ruichu Cai , Xiaokai Huang , Wei Chen , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

Many psychological theories can be operationalized as linear inequality constraints on the parameters of multinomial distributions (e.g., discrete choice analysis). These constraints can be described in two equivalent ways: Either as the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-23 Daniel W. Heck , Clintin P. Davis-Stober