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One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

Recent literature provides many computational and modeling approaches for covariance matrices estimation in a penalized Gaussian graphical models but relatively little study has been carried out on the choice of the tuning parameter. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-08 Heng Lian

We propose a test of the significance of a variable appearing on the Lasso path and use it in a procedure for selecting one of the models of the Lasso path, controlling the Family-Wise Error Rate. Our null hypothesis depends on a set A of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Matthieu Pluntz , Cyril Dalmasso , Pascale Tubert-Bitter , Ismail Ahmed

Recently, financial industry and regulators have enhanced the debate on the good properties of a risk measure. A fundamental issue is the evaluation of the quality of a risk estimation. On the one hand, a backtesting procedure is desirable…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-07 Matteo Burzoni , Ilaria Peri , Chiara Maria Ruffo

This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-10 Sylvain Arlot

The Lasso regression is a popular regularization method for feature selection in statistics. Prior to computing the Lasso estimator in both linear and generalized linear models, it is common to conduct a preliminary rescaling of the feature…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Anant Mathur , Sarat Moka , Zdravko Botev

Nowadays, l1 penalized likelihood has absorbed a high amount of consideration due to its simplicity and well developed theoretical properties. This method is known as a reliable method in order to apply in a broad range of applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-12 Hamed Haselimashhadi

The Lasso has become a benchmark data analysis procedure, and numerous variants have been proposed in the literature. Although the Lasso formulations are stated so that overall prediction error is optimized, no full control over the…

The Lasso is a prominent algorithm for variable selection. However, its instability in the presence of correlated variables in the high-dimensional setting is well-documented. Although previous research has attempted to address this issue…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-28 Mahdi Nouraie , Connor Smith , Samuel Muller

In this paper, for Lasso penalized linear regression models in high-dimensional settings, we propose a modified cross-validation method for selecting the penalty parameter. The methodology is extended to other penalties, such as Elastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-10 Yi Yu , Yang Feng

The present work aims at deriving theoretical guaranties on the behavior of some cross-validation procedures applied to the $k$-nearest neighbors ($k$NN) rule in the context of binary classification. Here we focus on the leave-$p$-out…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Alain Celisse , Tristan Mary-Huard

In high-dimensional statistical inference in which the number of parameters to be estimated is larger than that of the holding data, regularized linear estimation techniques are widely used. These techniques have, however, some drawbacks.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Takashi Takahashi , Yoshiyuki Kabashima

In this study, we investigate the bias and variance properties of the debiased Lasso in linear regression when the tuning parameter of the node-wise Lasso is selected to be smaller than in previous studies. We consider the case where the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-19 Akira Shinkyu , Naoya Sueishi

In this article we prove that estimator stability is enough to show that leave-one-out cross validation is a sound procedure, by providing concentration bounds in a general framework. In particular, we provide concentration bounds beyond…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Benny Avelin , Lauri Viitasaari

We study how correlations in the design matrix influence Lasso prediction. First, we argue that the higher the correlations are, the smaller the optimal tuning parameter is. This implies in particular that the standard tuning parameters,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-11 Mohamed Hebiri , Johannes C. Lederer

In a polynomial regression model, the divisibility conditions implicit in polynomial hierarchy give way to a natural construction of constraints for the model parameters. We use this principle to derive versions of strong and weak hierarchy…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-23 Hugo Maruri-Aguilar , Simon Lunagomez

In modern data analysis, sparse model selection becomes inevitable once the number of predictors variables is very high. It is well-known that model selection procedures like the Lasso or Boosting tend to overfit on real data. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Tino Werner

Cross validation is commonly used for selecting tuning parameters in penalized regression, but its use in penalized Cox regression models has received relatively little attention in the literature. Due to its partial likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Biyue Dai , Patrick Breheny

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-18 Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman , Jonah Gabry

The Lasso is a popular regression method for high-dimensional problems in which the number of parameters $\theta_1,\dots,\theta_N$, is larger than the number $n$ of samples: $N>n$. A useful heuristics relates the statistical properties of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-06 Léo Miolane , Andrea Montanari
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