Related papers: What Counterfactuals Can Be Tested
Before A/B testing online a new version of a recommender system, it is usual to perform some offline evaluations on historical data. We focus on evaluation methods that compute an estimator of the potential uplift in revenue that could…
Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…
Counterfactual explanations are a widely used approach in Explainable AI, offering actionable insights into decision-making by illustrating how small changes to input data can lead to different outcomes. Despite their importance, evaluating…
As counterfactual examples become increasingly popular for explaining decisions of deep learning models, it is essential to understand what properties quantitative evaluation metrics do capture and equally important what they do not…
We present new counterexamples, which provide stronger limitations to sums-differences statements than were previously known. The main idea is to consider non-uniform probability measures.
Statistical hypothesis testing serves as statistical evidence for scientific innovation. However, if the reported results are intentionally biased, hypothesis testing no longer controls the rate of false discovery. In particular, we study…
Counterfactual explanations are a popular type of explanation for making the outcomes of a decision making system transparent to the user. Counterfactual explanations tell the user what to do in order to change the outcome of the system in…
We provide a comparative study of several widely used off-policy estimators (Empirical Average, Basic Importance Sampling and Normalized Importance Sampling), detailing the different regimes where they are individually suboptimal. We then…
In high-stakes domains like medicine, it may be generally desirable for models to faithfully adhere to the context provided. But what happens if the context does not align with model priors or safety protocols? In this paper, we investigate…
Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…
Suppose that we are given a quantum computer programmed ready to perform a computation if it is switched on. Counterfactual computation is a process by which the result of the computation may be learnt without actually running the computer.…
In this paper we present the ClaimBuster dataset of 23,533 statements extracted from all U.S. general election presidential debates and annotated by human coders. The ClaimBuster dataset can be leveraged in building computational methods to…
Stapp's counterfactual argument for quantum nonlocality based upon a Hardy entangled state is shown to be flawed. While he has correctly analyzed a particular framework using the method of consistent histories, there are alternative…
Counterfactuals operationalised through algorithmic recourse have become a powerful tool to make artificial intelligence systems explainable. Conceptually, given an individual classified as y -- the factual -- we seek actions such that…
I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…
Recently, counterfactuals using "if-only" explanations have become very popular in eXplainable AI (XAI), as they describe which changes to feature-inputs of a black-box AI system result in changes to a (usually negative) decision-outcome.…
Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…
Explaining autonomous and intelligent systems is critical in order to improve trust in their decisions. Counterfactuals have emerged as one of the most compelling forms of explanation. They address ``why not'' questions by revealing how…
The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…
We predict credit applications with off-the-shelf, interchangeable black-box classifiers and we explain single predictions with counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations expose the minimal changes required on the input data…