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Large language models are often assumed to acquire increasingly structured, generalizable internal representations simply by scaling data and parameters. We interrogate this assumption by introducing a Clinical Trial Natural Language…
Reinforcement learning (RL) combines a control problem with statistical estimation: The system dynamics are not known to the agent, but can be learned through experience. A recent line of research casts `RL as inference' and suggests a…
Probabilistic programs are a powerful and convenient approach to formalise distributions over system executions. A classical verification problem for probabilistic programs is temporal inference: to compute the likelihood that the execution…
A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of…
In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…
Extracting relations from text corpora is an important task in text mining. It becomes particularly challenging when focusing on weakly-supervised relation extraction, that is, utilizing a few relation instances (i.e., a pair of entities…
A popular paradigm for offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks is to first fit the offline trajectories to a sequence model, and then prompt the model for actions that lead to high expected return. In addition to obtaining accurate…
Key challenges in the analysis of highly multivariate large-scale spatial stochastic processes, where both the number of components (p) and spatial locations (n) can be large, include achieving maximal sparsity in the joint precision…
We consider the fundamental problem of matching a template to a signal. We do so by M-estimation, which encompasses procedures that are robust to gross errors (i.e., outliers). Using standard results from empirical process theory, we derive…
Restricted Boltzmann machines~(RBMs) and conditional RBMs~(CRBMs) are popular models for a wide range of applications. In previous work, learning on such models has been dominated by contrastive divergence~(CD) and its variants. Belief…
Inspired from modern out-of-equilibrium statistical physics models, a matrix product based framework permits the formal definition of random vectors (and random time series) whose desired joint distributions are a priori prescribed. Its key…
Markov random fields (MRFs) are invaluable tools across diverse fields, and spatiotemporal MRFs (STMRFs) amplify their effectiveness by integrating spatial and temporal dimensions. However, modeling spatiotemporal data introduces additional…
A fundamental question in causal inference is whether it is possible to reliably infer manipulation effects from observational data. There are a variety of senses of asymptotic reliability in the statistical literature, among which the most…
Inference in continuous label Markov random fields is a challenging task. We use particle belief propagation (PBP) for solving the inference problem in continuous label space. Sampling particles from the belief distribution is typically…
Markov random fields (MRFs) are a powerful tool for modelling statistical dependencies for a set of random variables using a graphical representation. An important computational problem related to MRFs, called maximum a posteriori (MAP)…
Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their…
We describe a novel approach to statistical learning from particles tracked while moving in a random environment. The problem consists in inferring properties of the environment from recorded snapshots. We consider here the case of a fluid…
Subjective evaluation of LLM behavior -- empathy, restraint, calibrated emotional tone -- is hard. Human inter-rater agreement on such qualities saturates near rho ~ 0.45, and an LLM-as-judge proxy alone risks circularity: a judge sharing…
We propose an approach to lifted approximate inference for first-order probabilistic models, such as Markov logic networks. It is based on performing exact lifted inference in a simplified first-order model, which is found by relaxing…
Pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs) or undirected graphical models are parsimonious representations of joint probability distributions. Variables correspond to nodes of a graph, with edges between nodes corresponding to conditional…