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We propose a framework to model the distribution of sequential data coming from a set of entities connected in a graph with a known topology. The method is based on a mixture of shared hidden Markov models (HMMs), which are jointly trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-02 Diogo Pernes , Jaime S. Cardoso

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-11 The Minh Luong , Vittorio Perduca , Gregory Nuel

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Binyamin Perets , Mark Kozdoba , Shie Mannor

We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Aryeh Kontorovich , Boaz Nadler , Roi Weiss

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-01 Michalis K. Titsias , Christopher Yau , Christopher C. Holmes

For multivariate time series driven by underlying states, hidden Markov models (HMMs) constitute a powerful framework which can be flexibly tailored to the situation at hand. However, in practice it can be challenging to choose an adequate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Rouven Michels , Roland Langrock

This paper introduces the hhsmm R package, which involves functions for initializing, fitting, and predication of hidden hybrid Markov/semi-Markov models. These models are flexible models with both Markovian and semi-Markovian states, which…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-31 Morteza Amini , Afarin Bayat , Reza Salehian

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-21 Jan Reubold , Thorsten Strufe , Ulf Brefeld

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Yohan Jung , Jinkyoo Park

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-13 Daniel Turek , Perry de Valpine , Christopher J. Paciorek

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-08-02 Henning Christiansen , Christian Theil Have , Ole Torp Lassen , Matthieu Petit

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…

Mixture models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics and machine learning for treating data taken from multiple subpopulations. The current practice for estimating the parameters of such models relies on local search heuristics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-07 Animashree Anandkumar , Daniel Hsu , Sham M. Kakade

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-12 Brett T. McClintock , Roland Langrock , Olivier Gimenez , Emmanuelle Cam , David L. Borchers , Richard Glennie , Toby A. Patterson

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-22 Sofia Ruiz-Suarez , Vianey Leos-Barajas , Juan Manuel Morales

I describe a new Markov chain method for sampling from the distribution of the state sequences in a non-linear state space model, given the observation sequence. This method updates all states in the sequence simultaneously using an…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Radford M. Neal

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-14 Matthew Aguirre , Wenbo Sun , Jionghua , Jin , Yang Chen

Hidden Markov models provide a natural statistical framework for the detection of the copy number variations (CNV) in genomics. In this paper, we consider a Hidden Markov Model involving several correlated hidden processes at the same time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-22 Xiaoqiang Wang , Emilie Lebarbier , Julie Aubert , Stéphane Robin

The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-13 John Bechhoefer