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We study Bayes procedures for the problem of nonparametric drift estimation for one-dimensional, ergodic diffusion models from discrete-time, low-frequency data. We give conditions for posterior consistency and verify these conditions for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-01 Frank van der Meulen , Harry van Zanten

We consider the problem of the Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion coefficient functions in a stochastic differential equation given discrete observations of a realisation of its solution. We give conditions for the well-posedness and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Jean-Charles Croix , Masoumeh Dashti , Istvàn Zoltàn Kiss

We study efficiency of non-parametric estimation of diffusions (stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion) from long stationary trajectories. First, we introduce estimators based on conditional expectation which is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-26 Xi Chen , Ilya Timofeyev

We derive the posteror contraction rate for non-parametric Bayesian estimation of a deterministic dispersion coefficient of a linear stochastic differential equation.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Shota Gugushvili , Peter Spreij

We establish posterior consistency for non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the dispersion coefficient of a time-inhomogeneous Brownian motion.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Shota Gugushvili , Peter Spreij

We study a Bayesian approach to nonparametric estimation of the periodic drift function of a one-dimensional diffusion from continuous-time data. Rewriting the likelihood in terms of local time of the process, and specifying a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-14 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , J. H. van Zanten

A non-parametric diffusion model with an additive fractional Brownian motion noise is considered in this work. The drift is a non-parametric function that will be estimated by two methods. On one hand, we propose a locally linear estimator…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-13 Bruno Saussereau

We discuss nonparametric estimation of the trend coefficient in models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a multiplicative stochastic volatility.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 B. L. S. Prakasa Rao

A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion…

Biological Physics · Physics 2012-09-28 Jun Ohkubo

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility function of a stochastic differential equation driven by a gamma process. The volatility function is modelled a priori as piecewise constant, and we specify a gamma…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Denis Belomestny , Shota Gugushvili , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We study the estimation of time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate stochastic differential equations with known diffusion coefficient, from multiple trajectories observed at high frequency over a fixed time horizon. We formulate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Marcos Tapia Costa , Nikolas Kantas , George Deligiannidis

The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-09 Constantino A. García , Abraham Otero , Paulo Félix , Jesús Presedo , David G. Márquez

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We propose a novel non-parametric learning paradigm for the identification of drift and diffusion coefficients of multi-dimensional non-linear stochastic differential equations, which relies upon discrete-time observations of the state. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Riccardo Bonalli , Alessandro Rudi

In this article, we introduce a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of time-dependent covariates and consider both fixed and random effects set-ups. We also allow the functional part associated with the drift…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-16 Trisha Maitra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We derive consistency and asymptotic normality results for quasi-maximum likelihood methods for drift parameters of ergodic stochastic processes observed in discrete time in an underlying continuous-time setting. The special feature of our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-20 Teppei Ogihara , Mitja Stadje

We consider a combined state and drift estimation problem for the linear stochastic heat equation. The infinite-dimensional Bayesian inference problem is formulated in terms of the Kalman-Bucy filter over an extended state space, and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-18 Sebastian Reich , Paul Rozdeba

We consider a problem of statistical estimation of an unknown drift parameter for a stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion. Two estimators based on discrete observations of solution to the stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-26 Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ral'chenko , Oleg Seleznev , Georgiy Shevchenko
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