Related papers: State-independent Importance Sampling for Random W…
The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…
Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…
The goal of this paper is to develop provably efficient importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for the estimation of rare events within the class of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We find that if a spectral gap…
The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance…
We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…
The density of states of continuous models is known to span many orders of magnitudes at different energies due to the small volume of phase space near the ground state. Consequently, the traditional Wang-Landau sampling which uses the same…
In this paper, we address rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. The presence of infinite activities poses a critical challenge, making it impractical to simulate or store the precise sample path…
The Improved Cross-Entropy (ICE) method is a powerful tool for estimating failure probabilities in reliability analysis. Its core idea is to approximate the optimal importance-sampling density by minimizing the forward Kullback-Leibler…
Article describes the results of the development and using of Rare-Event Monte-Carlo Simulation Algorithms for Dynamic Fault Trees Estimation. For Fault Trees estimation usually analytical methods are used (Minimal Cut sets, Markov Chains,…
This work explores the nature of augmented importance sampling in safety-constrained model predictive control problems. When operating in a constrained environment, sampling based model predictive control and motion planning typically…
Very often when studying non-equilibrium systems one is interested in analysing dynamical behaviour that occurs with very low probability, so called rare events. In practice, since rare events are by definition atypical, they are often…
This paper deals with the estimation of rare event probabilities using importance sampling (IS), where an optimal proposal distribution is computed with the cross-entropy (CE) method. Although, IS optimized with the CE method leads to an…
In a 1976 paper published in Science, Knuth presented an algorithm to sample (non-uniform) self-avoiding walks crossing a square of side k. From this sample, he constructed an estimator for the number of such walks. The quality of this…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…
Machine learning optimization often depends on stochastic gradient descent, where the precision of gradient estimation is vital for model performance. Gradients are calculated from mini-batches formed by uniformly selecting data samples…
A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…