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We propose a novel method to improve estimation of asset returns for portfolio optimization. This approach first performs a monthly directional market forecast using an online decision tree. The decision tree is trained on a novel set of…
We propose a general approximation method for determining optimal trading strategies in markets with proportional transaction costs, with a polynomial approximation of the residual value function. The method is exemplified by several…
Records of the traded value f_i(t) of stocks display fluctuation scaling, a proportionality between the standard deviation sigma(i) and the average <f(i)>: sigma(i) ~ f(i)^alpha, with a strong time scale dependence alpha(dt). The…
In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave…
High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this…
This paper explores neural network-based approaches for algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency markets. Our approach combines multi-timeframe trend analysis with high-frequency direction prediction networks, achieving positive risk-adjusted…
Algorithmic trading in modern financial markets is widely acknowledged to exhibit strategic, game-theoretic behaviors whose complexity can be difficult to model. A recent series of papers (Chriss, 2024b,c,a, 2025) has made progress in the…
In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization.…
We theoretically and empirically study portfolio optimization under transaction costs and establish a link between turnover penalization and covariance shrinkage with the penalization governed by transaction costs. We show how the ex ante…
The autonomous trading agent is one of the most actively studied areas of artificial intelligence to solve the capital market portfolio management problem. The two primary goals of the portfolio management problem are maximizing profit and…
This paper proposes a new procedure to validate the multi-factor pricing theory by testing the presence of alpha in linear factor pricing models with a large number of assets. Because the market's inefficient pricing is likely to occur to a…
This paper studies a robust portfolio optimization problem under the multi-factor volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). The optimal strategy is derived analytically under the worst-case scenario with or without…
We give a simple explicit formula for turnover reduction when a large number of alphas are traded on the same execution platform and trades are crossed internally. We model turnover reduction via alpha correlations. Then, for a large number…
Recognizing that asset markets generally exhibit shared informational characteristics, we develop a portfolio strategy based on transfer learning that leverages cross-market information to enhance the investment performance in the market of…
We consider a dynamic portfolio optimization problem that incorporates predictable returns, instantaneous transaction costs, price impact, and stochastic volatility, extending the classical results of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013), which…
We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modelling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f) ~ 1/f**beta, scaled as power of frequency for various values of beta…
We argue that an important contributing factor into market inefficiency is the lack of a robust mechanism for the stock price to rise if a company has good earnings, e.g., via buybacks/dividends. Instead, the stock price is prone to…
This work focuses on the mathematical study of constant function market makers. We rigorously establish the conditions for optimal trading under the assumption of a quasilinear, but not necessarily convex (or concave), trade function. This…
This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with implicit transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded…
Traditional approaches to financial asset allocation start with returns forecasting followed by an optimization stage that decides the optimal asset weights. Any errors made during the forecasting step reduce the accuracy of the asset…