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We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-07 Christos Pelekis

In this paper, we investigate the precise local large deviation probabilities for random sums of independent real-valued random variables with a common distribution $F$, where $F(x+\Delta)=F((x, x+T])$ is an $\mathcal{O}$-regularly varying…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Qiuying Zhang , Fengyang Cheng

We present a formalization of the well-known thesis that, in the case of independent identically distributed random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ with power-like tails of index $\alpha\in(0,2)$, large deviations of the sum $X_1+\dots+X_n$ are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Iosif Pinelis

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Sohail Bahmani

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele , Jaakko Lehtomaa

This paper considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent but not necessary identically distributed. The main result is a sharp lower bound for the optimal win…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Pieter C. Allaart , Jose A. Islas

We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Nina Maria Gottschling , Michele Caprio

We present a universal concentration bound for sums of random variables under arbitrary dependence, and we prove that it is asymptotically optimal for broad families of marginals admitting a uniform integrable tail-quantile envelope. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Cosme Louart , Sicheng Tan

The sums and maxima of non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraint is that there exists a unique series in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-11 Natalia Markovich

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

We derive in this short report the exact exponential decreasing tail of distribution for naturel normed sums of independent centered random variables (r.v.), applying the theory of Grand Lebesgue Spaces (GLS). We consider also some…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-10 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-09 Shaul Bar-Lev , Ad Ridder

In this paper we present a method for obtaining tail-bounds for random variables satisfying certain probabilistic recurrences that arise in the analysis of randomized parallel divide and conquer algorithms. In such algorithms, some…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-04-10 Joseph Tassarotti

Upper exponential inequalities for the tail probabilities of the centered and normalized number of triangles in the Erd\"{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph are obtained, where the probability of every edge is fixed. The result is formulated in terms of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-21 Alexander Bystrov , Nadezhda Volodko

Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-15 Zhaolin Li , Artem Prokhorov

In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-04 Jeffrey F. Collamore , Guoqing Diao , Anand N. Vidyashankar

This paper develops sharp bounds on moments of sums of k-wise independent bounded random variables, under constrained average variance. The result closes the problem addressed in part in the previous works of Schmidt et al. and Bellare,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Maciej Skorski

We obtain asymptotic approximations for the probability density function of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances. As a consequence, we deduce asymptotic approximations for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-22 Robert E. Gaunt , Zixin Ye

This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp

We study the extremes of multivariate regularly varying random fields. The crucial tools in our study are the tail field and the spectral field, notions that extend the tail and spectral processes of Basrak and Segers (2009). The spatial…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Lifan Wu , Gennady Samorodnitsky