Related papers: First and second order semi-Markov chains for wind…
The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used with this purpose but better models are…
In this paper we consider the problem of wind energy production by using a second order semi-Markov chain in state and duration as a model of wind speed. The model used in this paper is based on our previous work where we have showed the…
The prediction of wind speed is one of the most important aspects when dealing with renewable energy. In this paper we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed…
The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an…
In this paper a general second order semi-Markov reward model is presented. Equations for the higher order moments of the reward process are presented for the first time and applied to wind energy production. The application is executed by…
Using a method for stochastic data analysis, borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We first show…
Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial…
Modeling wind speed is one of the key element when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. A good model can be used for forecasting, site evaluation, turbines design and many other purposes. In this work we are…
The computation of the dependability measures is a crucial point in the planning and development of a wind farm. In this paper we address the issue of energy production by wind turbine by using an indexed semi-Markov chain as a model of…
The increasing sophistication of wind turbine design and control generates a need for high-quality data. Therefore, the relatively limited set of measured wind data may be extended with computer-generated surrogate data, e.g. to make…
The description of wind phenomena is frequently based on data obtained from anemometers, which usually report the wind speed and direction only in a horizontal plane. Such measurements are commonly used either to develop wind generation…
Driven by climatic processes, wind power generation is inherently variable. Long-term simulated wind power time series are therefore an essential component for understanding the temporal availability of wind power and its integration into…
The probabilistic characteristics of daily wind speed are not well captured by simple density functions such as Normal or Weibull distribuions as suggested by the existing literature. The unmodeled uncertainties can cause unknown influences…
In this paper we describe three stochastic models based on a semi-Markov chains approach and its generalizations to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. The three models are: a simple semi-Markov chain model, an indexed…
State-space models are commonly used to describe different forms of ecological data. We consider the case of count data with observation errors. For such data the system process is typically multi-dimensional consisting of coupled Markov…
In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed…
A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…
The importance of renewable power production is a set goal in terms of the energy turnaround. Developing short-term wind speed forecasting improvements might increase the profitability of wind power. This article compares two novel…
Climate change is one of the most concerning issues of this century. Emission from electric power generation is a crucial factor that drives the concern to the next level. Renewable energy sources are widespread and available globally,…
Wind energy is becoming a top contributor to the renewable energy mix, which raises potential reliability issues for the grid due to the fluctuating nature of its source. To achieve adequate reserve commitment and to promote market…