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Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Peiyuan Liu , Beiliang Wu , Yifan Hu , Naiqi Li , Tao Dai , Jigang Bao , Shu-tao Xia

We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-11-11 Gerrit Ansmann

In modern interdisciplinary research, manifold time series data have been garnering more attention. A critical question in analyzing such data is ``stationarity'', which reflects the underlying dynamic behavior and is crucial across various…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Junhao Zhu , Dehan Kong , Zhaolei Zhang , Zhenhua Lin

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Suryadeepto Nag

These notes derive a number of technical results on nonlinear contraction theory, a comparatively recent tool for system stability analysis. In particular, they provide new results on the preservation of contraction through system…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 Nicolas Tabareau , Jean-Jacques Slotine

Impulsive systems are a very flexible class of systems that can be used to represent switched and sampled-data systems. We propose to extend here the previously obtained results on deterministic impulsive systems to the stochastic setting.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-02 Corentin Briat

We establish almost sure invariance principles, a strong form of approximation by Brownian motion, for non-stationary time-series arising as observations on dynamical systems. Our examples include observations on sequential expanding maps,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-06-18 N. Haydn , M. Nicol , A. Tôrôk , S. Vaienti

We present simple classical dynamical models to illustrate the idea of introducing a stochasticity with non-locality into the time variable. For stochasticity in time, these models include noise in the time variable but not in the "space"…

General Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Toru Ohira

We provide explicit conditions for uniform stability, global asymptotic stability and uniform exponential stability for dynamic equations with a single delay and a nonnegative coefficient. Some examples on nonstandard time scales are also…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-02-21 Elena Braverman , Basak Karpuz

Robustness guarantees are important properties to be looked for during control design. They ensure stability of closed-loop systems in face of uncertainties, unmodeled effects and bounded disturbances. While the theory on robust stability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-10 Samuele Zoboli , Daniele Astolfi , Vincent Andrieu

We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Balázs Gerencsér , Miklós Rásonyi

The present work revisits the reduction of the nonlinear dynamics of an electromechanical system through a quasi-steady state hypothesis, discussing the fundamental aspects of this type of approach and clarifying some confusing points found…

This paper proposes a unified approach for studying global exponential stability of a general class of switched systems described by time-varying nonlinear functional differential equations. Some new delay-independent criteria of global…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-09-16 Nguyen Khoa Son , Le Van Ngoc

This work proposes a detectability condition for linear time-varying systems based on the exponential dichotomy spectrum. The condition guarantees the existence of an observer, whose gain is determined only by the unstable modes of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-20 Markus Tranninger , Richard Seeber , Martin Steinberger , Martin Horn , Christian Pötzsche

We study ergodic properties of nonlinear Markov chains and stochastic McKean-Vlasov equations. For nonlinear Markov chains we obtain sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure and uniform ergodicity. We also…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-26 Oleg Butkovsky

Stationarity is a very general, qualitative assumption, that can be assessed on the basis of application specifics. It is thus a rather attractive assumption to base statistical analysis on, especially for problems for which less general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Daniil Ryabko

Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models frequently used in, but not limited to, biochemistry. These models are continuous-time Markov chains whose transition rates depend on certain parameters called rate constants, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-14 Daniele Cappelletti , Aidan Howells , Chuang Xu

We review models of biological evolution in which the population frequency changes deterministically with time. If the population is self-replicating, although the equations for simple prototypes can be linearised, nonlinear equations arise…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Kavita Jain , Sarada Seetharaman

This article aims to investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of stochastic differential equations with a random structure, particularly in contexts involving the presence of concentration points. The proof of asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-22 Taras Lukashiv , Igor V. Malyk , Maryna Chepeleva , Petr V. Nazarov

The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-01 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane , Tim Rogers