Related papers: The fine-structure of volatility feedback I: multi…
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The temporal structure and…
This article proposes a novel Bayesian multivariate quantile regression to forecast the tail behavior of energy commodities, where the homoskedasticity assumption is relaxed to allow for time-varying volatility. In particular, we exploit…
The paper develops a general flexible framework for Network Autoregressive Processes (NAR), wherein the response of each node linearly depends on its past values, a prespecified linear combination of neighboring nodes and a set of…
The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is revised by modeling the joint distribution of the four partial-volatility terms therein involved. Namely, today's, yesterday's, last week's and last month's volatility components. The joint…
Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent…
Many signal processing and machine learning applications are built from evaluating a kernel on pairs of signals, e.g. to assess the similarity of an incoming query to a database of known signals. This nonlinear evaluation can be simplified…
Guyon and Lekeufack recently proposed a path-dependent volatility model and documented its excellent performance in fitting market data and capturing stylized facts. The instantaneous volatility is modeled as a linear combination of two…
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
Count time series data are frequently analyzed by modeling their conditional means and the conditional variance is often considered to be a deterministic function of the corresponding conditional mean and is not typically modeled…
We suggest an empirical model of investment strategy returns which elucidates the importance of non-Gaussian features, such as time-varying volatility, asymmetry and fat tails, in explaining the level of expected returns. Estimating the…
This paper considers a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (S-GARCH) model. For this model, we first estimate the time-varying long run component for unconditional variance by the kernel estimator, and…
We investigate the emergence of a structure in the correlation matrix of assets' returns as the time-horizon over which returns are computed increases from the minutes to the daily scale. We analyze data from different stock markets (New…
A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…
This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in…
Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
Despite the rapid development of quantum science and technology, errors are inevitable and play a crucial role in quantum simulation and quantum computation. In quantum chaotic systems, coherent errors arising from imperfect Hamiltonian…
The functional autoregressive model is a Markov model taylored for data of functional nature. It revealed fruitful when attempting to model samples of dependent random curves and has been widely studied along the past few years. This…
We study the relation between serial correlation of financial returns and volatility at intraday level for the S&P500 stock index. At daily and weekly level, serial correlation and volatility are known to be negatively correlated (LeBaron…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…