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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , Daniel J. Graham , Emma J. McCoy

In this paper we consider a distributed optimization scenario in which the aggregate objective function to minimize is partitioned, big-data and possibly non-convex. Specifically, we focus on a set-up in which the dimension of the decision…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2017-03-27 Ivano Notarnicola , Giuseppe Notarstefano

Semi- and non-parametric mixture of regressions are a very useful flexible class of mixture of regressions in which some or all of the parameters are non-parametric functions of the covariates. These models are, however, based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Sphiwe B. Skhosana , Weixin Yao

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Kernel density estimation is a widely used nonparametric approach to estimate an unknown distribution. Recent work in Bayesian predictive inference has considered stochastic processes formed by specifying the predictive distribution for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Torey Hilbert

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

In this paper we introduce two Bayesian estimators for learning the parameters of the Gamma distribution. The first algorithm uses a well known unnormalized conjugate prior for the Gamma shape and the second one uses a non-linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-13 A. Llera , C. F. Beckmann

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

We consider the nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process in a circular model from indirect observations $N_1,\ldots,N_n$. These observations emerge from hidden point process realizations with the target…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Martin Kroll

Parameter identification problems in partial differential equations (PDEs) consist in determining one or more functional coefficient in a PDE. In this article, the Bayesian nonparametric approach to such problems is considered. Focusing on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-24 Matteo Giordano

Bayesian coresets have emerged as a promising approach for implementing scalable Bayesian inference. The Bayesian coreset problem involves selecting a (weighted) subset of the data samples, such that the posterior inference using the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Jacky Y. Zhang , Rajiv Khanna , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

In this paper we construct optimal designs for frequentist model averaging estimation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the model averaging estimate with fixed weights in the case where the competing models are non-nested and none…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-27 Kira Alhorn , Holger Dette , Kirsten Schorning

Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Michael Minyi Zhang , Sinead A. Williamson , Fernando Perez-Cruz

We develop a framework for task-specific active next-best-view selection in 3D reconstruction from point clouds, by casting the problem in the language of Bayesian decision theory. Our framework works by (a) placing a prior distribution…

Graphics · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jingsen Zhu , Silvia Sellán , Alexander Terenin

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Tianfang Zhang , Rasmus Bokrantz , Jimmy Olsson

Bayesian optimization has proven to be a highly effective methodology for the global optimization of unknown, expensive and multimodal functions. The ability to accurately model distributions over functions is critical to the effectiveness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-13 Jasper Snoek , Kevin Swersky , Richard S. Zemel , Ryan P. Adams

We propose a Bayesian optimization algorithm for objective functions that are sums or integrals of expensive-to-evaluate functions, allowing noisy evaluations. These objective functions arise in multi-task Bayesian optimization for tuning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-26 Saul Toscano-Palmerin , Peter I. Frazier

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-26 Osonde Adekorede Osoba

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang
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