Related papers: A universal approximate cross-validation criterion…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we…
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection plays a key role in enhancing the robustness of artificial intelligence systems by identifying inputs that differ significantly from the training distribution, thereby preventing unreliable predictions…
Cross-validation assesses the predictive ability of a model, allowing one to rank models accordingly. Although the nonparametric bootstrap is almost always used to assess the variability of a parameter, it can be used as the basis for…
Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful method for carrying out Bayesian inference when the likelihood is computationally intractable. However, a drawback of ABC is that it is an approximate method that induces a systematic…
Tuning parameter selection is of critical importance for kernel ridge regression. To this date, data driven tuning method for divide-and-conquer kernel ridge regression (d-KRR) has been lacking in the literature, which limits the…
In density estimation, the mean integrated squared error (MISE) is commonly used as a measure of performance. In that setting, the cross-validation criterion provides an unbiased estimator of the MISE minus the integral of the squared…
We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…
We propose two methods to evaluate the conditional Akaike information (cAI) for nonlinear mixed-effects models with no restriction on cluster size. Method 1 is designed for continuous data and includes formulae for the derivatives of fixed…
Mutual information is widely used, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of categorical random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the descriptive value, one must consider…
Longitudinal data are common in clinical trials and observational studies, where missing outcomes due to dropouts are always encountered. Under such context with the assumption of missing at random, the weighted generalized estimating…
Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the…
Finite sample bounds on the estimation error of the mean by the empirical mean, uniform over a class of functions, can often be conveniently obtained in terms of Rademacher or Gaussian averages of the class. If a function of n variables has…
Finding a good regularization parameter for Tikhonov regularization problems is a though yet often asked question. One approach is to use leave-one-out cross-validation scores to indicate the goodness of fit. This utilizes only the noisy…
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…
In machine learning, statistics, econometrics and statistical physics, cross-validation (CV) is used asa standard approach in quantifying the generalisation performance of a statistical model. A directapplication of CV in time-series leads…
We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…
We study the problem of selection of regularization parameter in penalized Gaussian graphical models. When the goal is to obtain the model with good predicting power, cross validation is the gold standard. We present a new estimator of…
This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as…
The universal typical-signal estimators of entropy and cross entropy based on the asymptotics of recurrence and waiting times play an important role in information theory. Building on their construction, we introduce and study universal…