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The regular variation model for multivariate extremes decomposes the joint distribution of the extremes in polar coordinates in terms of the angles and the norm of the random vector as the product of two independent densities: the angular…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-08 Fernández-Durán , J. J. , Gregorio-Domínguez , M. M

In this study, the cumulative effect of the empirical probability distribution of a random variable is identified as a factor that amplifies the occurrence of extreme events in datasets. To quantify this observation, a corresponding…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-03-19 Mohammad Farazmand , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

The aim of this paper is to provide models for spatial extremes in the case of stationarity. The spatial dependence at extreme levels of a stationary process is modeled using an extension of the theory of max-stable processes of de Haan and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Laurens de Haan , Teresa T. Pereira

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Zhengjun Zhang

Nowadays, different places have different region stability, which is influenced by lots of factors. In this paper ,it is aimed to analyze the influence of climate change on regional stability. several factors that may influence the region…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-07 Tianyu Shi , Jiayan Guo , Xuxin Cheng , Yu hao

Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2013-11-11 R. Labbé , G. Bustamante

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Sabrina Vettori , Raphaël Huser , Johan Segers , Marc G. Genton

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

Environmental data science for spatial extremes has traditionally relied heavily on max-stable processes. Even though the popularity of these models has perhaps peaked with statisticians, they are still perceived and considered as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-01 Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz , Jennifer Wadsworth

Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-22 Tristan H. Abbott , Timothy W. Cronin , Tom Beucler

Our understanding of the dynamics of complex networked systems has increased significantly in the last two decades. However, most of our knowledge is built upon assuming pairwise relations among the system's components. This is often an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-15 Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda , Giovanni Petri , Yamir Moreno

Although ubiquitous, interactions of groups of individuals (e.g., modern messaging applications, group meetings, or even a parliament discussion) are not yet thoroughly studied. Frequently, single-groups are modeled as critical-mass…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-19 Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda , Giovanni Petri , Pablo Martín Rodriguez , Yamir Moreno

In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaechoul Lee , Mintaek Lee , Thea Sukianto

Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-06-14 Joan Rey , Guillaume Rohat , Marjorie Perroud , Stéphane Goyette , Jérôme Kasparian

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Ross Towe , Jonathan Tawn , Emma Eastoe , Rob Lamb

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira